Bitcoin bounces will keep getting sold off, UNTIL these conditions are met!

Bitcoin [BTC], at press time, was trading at $67.7K, having bounced from the $66.2K low it made on Tuesday, 31 March. While the price has stayed above the $65.6K demand zone established early in March, the bulls are having trouble pushing the price even higher.

Now, Bitcoin has been trading well below its short-term holder realized price for months now. In fact, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr revealed that the STH realized price was near $85.8K, while BTC’s market price was just $67.7k.

Moreover, the STH realized price dropped to -5.35% year-on-year, something that had not happened since the 2022 bear market.

The combination of short-term holders in losses and the negative YoY STH realized price simply reinforces the idea of weak demand and bear market conditions.

The analyst also observed that short-term holder’s output profit/loss has been below 1 since December 2025. In other words, STHs have been selling Bitcoin at a loss for months now.

Once again, extended periods where the SOPR stayed below 1 were representative of bear market conditions. The press time reading of 0.989 hinted at moderate selling pressure.

So long as the SOPR stays below 1 and the market price is far from the realized price, any Bitcoin price bounce would be sold into as market participants seek to cut their losses or exit the market at breakeven.

Whale selling pressure has been slowing down

Another analyst, Darkfost, observed in a post on CryptoQuant Insights that whales had been particularly active in February and early March. At that time, Bitcoin was trading between $64K-$69K.

The respite rally to $76K in March was accompanied by reduced Bitcoin whale inflows to Binance. The 30-day inflows fell from 4,000 BTC to 1,600 BTC, indicating a slowdown in selling pressure from the largest whales.

The largest market players have been adopting a wait-and-watch approach in recent weeks, but Bitcoin’s recent retreat below $70K brought a fresh flurry of selling from the rest.

The 7-day moving average of the exchange inflow Coin Days Destroyed has been rising over the past week too. Higher values indicate that more long-term sellers may be positioning to sell their BTC.

Here, it should be noted that the inflow CDD was far below the panicky February levels. However, it has increased slightly over the past week.

Final Summary

• Short-term holders could be largely underwater, with the SOPR showing that moderate selling pressure from this cohort is still present.
• Slowdown in whale inflows suggested the largest market players might be adopting a wait-and-watch approach.