Fidelity Warns 8.3M Bitcoin Could Be Off the Market Within 7 Years: Report

TLDR:

• Fidelity projects 8.3M BTC, or 42% of total supply, will be illiquid by 2032.
• Long-term holders have grown their balances every quarter since 2016, showing steady accumulation.
• Public companies hold over 830,000 BTC, with just one quarterly decline since 2020.
• Over 95% of Bitcoin is already mined, reducing new supply entering the market.

The Bitcoin market is heading into a new phase where scarcity may matter more than ever. 

A fresh report from Fidelity projects that nearly half of all Bitcoin could be effectively locked away within the next decade. Long-term holders and public companies are leading this accumulation trend. 

Analysts suggest this shift could have lasting effects on liquidity and market dynamics. The question now is how investors will adapt as available supply shrinks.

Bitcoin Supply Is Tightening Fast

Fidelity’s research points to a growing concentration of Bitcoin in long-term hands. The firm estimates that by 2032, 42% of the circulating supply,  more than 8.3 million Bitcoin, will qualify as illiquid.

To define illiquid supply, Fidelity focused on Bitcoin that has not moved for at least seven years and holdings of public companies with 1,000 BTC or more. Data shows both cohorts have consistently increased their balances almost every quarter since tracking began.

Public companies alone hold over 830,000 BTC as of June 30, 2025. Fidelity’s analysis excludes any assumption of new corporate accumulation, meaning that number could grow if adoption accelerates.

This tightening supply is happening alongside near-complete issuance. With over 95% of Bitcoin already mined, new supply entering the market is slowing sharply, adding pressure to available liquidity.

Long-Term Holders Continue to Accumulate

Fidelity’s data shows that coins dormant for seven years or longer have never seen a net quarterly decline since 2016. This group represents a large portion of Bitcoin that rarely moves, reinforcing the trend toward hoarding rather than spending.

The research also highlights that 80,000 ancient coins, more than a decade old, were moved in July 2025, suggesting some holders may be realizing profits at current prices.

Even with that selling, Fidelity expects the illiquid portion to grow steadily if past patterns hold. The firm projects that by Q2 2032, nearly half the market will be in wallets that seldom transact.

This outlook hints at a future where fewer coins are available for trading. As Fidelity notes, when a fixed supply asset sees rising demand, price becomes the only variable left to adjust.

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