Good, morning Asia. Here’s what’s moving before the bell. Bitcoin fell 2% in early Asia, slipping below $107,000 as whale profit booking and continued ETF outflows weighed on sentiment. The pullback extends pressure from Red October, when a $19b washout on Oct. 19 set a weaker tone that bled into November. Traders say the move looks like consolidation after a volatile month, with some positioning for a base before the next leg higher. Market snapshot Bitcoin: $106,961, down 0.7% Ether: $3,636, down 2.7% XRP: $2.35, down 3.4% Total crypto market cap: $3.64 trillion, down 1.6% Institutional Demand Slows as New Bitcoin Supply Outpaces Accumulation On-chain flows support the cautious mood. For the first time in seven months, institutional demand has dipped below the pace of new coin issuance, according to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. It is a sign that large buyers are stepping back. That shift aligns with a broader risk-off stance across crypto. Equities painted a different picture. Most major stock indexes climbed on Monday after news that Amazon will supply cloud services to OpenAI, while the dollar firmed to a three-month high against the euro as expectations for hefty US rate cuts faded. Wall Street finished the previous session stronger, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq buoyed by tech gains, though futures later pointed lower, indicating a softer US open. In Asia, a rise in tech shares lifted Japan’s Nikkei and Taiwan’s TAIEX to record highs, while several regional markets slipped after recent rallies. Fed Signals Measured Path Ahead as Traders Scale Back Rate-Cut Bets Policy remains the main macro thread. The Federal Reserve eased last week as expected, but Chair Jerome Powell said an interest rate cut at the next meeting in December was “not a foregone conclusion.” That line kept traders from leaning too hard into dovish bets. Meanwhile, Fed officials on Monday offered mixed views on growth and inflation, and the ongoing US government shutdown has delayed key data, complicating the read-through for December. Markets now price a roughly 70% chance of a 25-basis-point cut next month, down from about 94% a week ago. After October’s Shakeout, Crypto Markets Seek Stability as Leverage Resets Back in crypto, October’s liquidation wave drained leverage and risk capital. Rebuilding that base takes time, which is why spot dips are attracting only selective bids and rallies fade quickly when supply hits exchanges. “In many ways, October’s correction has done what it needed to: it has flushed out leverage and re-set sentiment,” said Rachel Lin, chief executive of SynFutures. “On-chain data shows that long-term holders are not capitulating, they’re actively accumulating. Exchange outflows remain steady, and that’s historically a constructive sign>’ She added that November could start sideways as markets absorb Fed commentary. A softer inflation print or a clearer easing message could spark a recovery, while Ethereum may track the same path, with added support from network upgrades and growing institutional use of DeFi. For now, the path of least resistance hinges on flows. If ETF redemptions slow and exchange inflows abate, spot could stabilize above recent lows. Until then, the market will trade headline to headline, with macro and positioning calling the shotsGood, morning Asia. Here’s what’s moving before the bell. Bitcoin fell 2% in early Asia, slipping below $107,000 as whale profit booking and continued ETF outflows weighed on sentiment. The pullback extends pressure from Red October, when a $19b washout on Oct. 19 set a weaker tone that bled into November. Traders say the move looks like consolidation after a volatile month, with some positioning for a base before the next leg higher. Market snapshot Bitcoin: $106,961, down 0.7% Ether: $3,636, down 2.7% XRP: $2.35, down 3.4% Total crypto market cap: $3.64 trillion, down 1.6% Institutional Demand Slows as New Bitcoin Supply Outpaces Accumulation On-chain flows support the cautious mood. For the first time in seven months, institutional demand has dipped below the pace of new coin issuance, according to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. It is a sign that large buyers are stepping back. That shift aligns with a broader risk-off stance across crypto. Equities painted a different picture. Most major stock indexes climbed on Monday after news that Amazon will supply cloud services to OpenAI, while the dollar firmed to a three-month high against the euro as expectations for hefty US rate cuts faded. Wall Street finished the previous session stronger, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq buoyed by tech gains, though futures later pointed lower, indicating a softer US open. In Asia, a rise in tech shares lifted Japan’s Nikkei and Taiwan’s TAIEX to record highs, while several regional markets slipped after recent rallies. Fed Signals Measured Path Ahead as Traders Scale Back Rate-Cut Bets Policy remains the main macro thread. The Federal Reserve eased last week as expected, but Chair Jerome Powell said an interest rate cut at the next meeting in December was “not a foregone conclusion.” That line kept traders from leaning too hard into dovish bets. Meanwhile, Fed officials on Monday offered mixed views on growth and inflation, and the ongoing US government shutdown has delayed key data, complicating the read-through for December. Markets now price a roughly 70% chance of a 25-basis-point cut next month, down from about 94% a week ago. After October’s Shakeout, Crypto Markets Seek Stability as Leverage Resets Back in crypto, October’s liquidation wave drained leverage and risk capital. Rebuilding that base takes time, which is why spot dips are attracting only selective bids and rallies fade quickly when supply hits exchanges. “In many ways, October’s correction has done what it needed to: it has flushed out leverage and re-set sentiment,” said Rachel Lin, chief executive of SynFutures. “On-chain data shows that long-term holders are not capitulating, they’re actively accumulating. Exchange outflows remain steady, and that’s historically a constructive sign>’ She added that November could start sideways as markets absorb Fed commentary. A softer inflation print or a clearer easing message could spark a recovery, while Ethereum may track the same path, with added support from network upgrades and growing institutional use of DeFi. For now, the path of least resistance hinges on flows. If ETF redemptions slow and exchange inflows abate, spot could stabilize above recent lows. Until then, the market will trade headline to headline, with macro and positioning calling the shots