What It Means For Ukraine

Russia has been attacking Ukraine with a jet-powered variant of its Shahed drone since June. Now, after the first recovery of an intact drone, Ukraine’s GUR Intelligence Service has published full details including a 3D model and a detailed breakdown of the electronics,

There are no great technological breakthroughs on show here, but the new drone does mark a shift towards faster and so more dangerous weapons.

Upgrading The Attack

Russia produces copies of the Iranian Shahed-136 attack drone under license, calling them Geran-2. The standard version has a two-stroke engine driving a propeller, making a distinctive sound which has led to it being nicknamed ‘moped’.

Cruising at around 120 mph, Shaheds are individually easy targets to hit from the ground – German Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns have been notably successful at bringing them down – but they are launched in vast numbers. When up to 800 are launched in one night, some get through.

According to the Ukrainian Air Force, in August some 83% of Shaheds were brought down.

Russia has repeatedly changed Shahed tactics in attempts to increase its success rate – switching from very low altitude to very high, attacking in waves, taking indirect routes to the target to avoid known air defenses. They have also made design changes, notably the low-visibility ‘stealth’ black paint scheme which makes the drones harder to spot at night, adding jam-resistant navigation, and using a data link to reprogram the drones with a new flight plan during an attack.

A jet engine, to increase the drone’s speed is an obvious but more challenging upgrade. The Iranians displayed a jet-powered version, known as the Shahed-238 in 2023. They also unveiled a different jet powered Shahed-136 in September 2024. Analyst Shahryar Pasandideh has carried out a detailed study and suggests Iran has at least three versions – and the new Russian one different again. The distinctive feature is a Chinese-made jet engine.

Fast But Thirsty

According to the GUR report, the new drone, known as Geran-3, is powered by a Chinese Telefly JT80 turbojet engine which gives it a speed of 185 – 230 mph.

This is significantly slower than the previous estimate of 300 mph for jet-powered Shaheds seen in Ukraine, and almost sluggish compared to the claimed 370 mph of the Shahed-238.

The reason for this comparative underperformance is likely the obvious one of money: higher performance engines cost more. The JT80 was previously advertised on Chinese site Alibaba at around $18,000, but no longer appears to be available. Other sources quote up t0 $30,000 for the JT80; similar engines are in the $15,000-$20,000 range.

Adding such an engine increases the cost of a Shahed, currently estimated at about $50,000, by 40%. That seems to be the acceptable balance of price versus performance.

The new engine still means the Geran-3 can travel almost twice as fast as its predecessor. A faster-moving target is harder to hit and gives significantly less time to respond to incoming waves of drones after they are detected on radar. At close range, defenders only have time to fire half as many shots before the drone is out of range – or on top of them.

As well as the cost, a jet engine brings another downside in terms of range. Turbojets are simple and basic form of jet engine, dating back to WWII, and they are inefficient in terms of fuel consumption. Modern airliners generally have turbofans, which draw in more air and travel much further on a tank of gas. The Geran-3 has an estimated range of 600 miles, compared to over 900 miles for the propeller version.

All The Bells & Whistles

Apart from the jet engine, the Geran-3 shares the features of the latest high-end Shaheds, including a 12-element anti-jam navigation system, camera and communications.

As with previous versions, the drone relies heavily on imported and smuggled components: the GUR report describes “45 identified foreign components, roughly half are from American manufacturers, eight are Chinese, seven Swiss, three German, two British and one Japanese.”

The fuel pump comes from Bosch, and there is a programmable chip or FGPA from Intel.

The warhead is the existing 110-pound TBBCh-50. This is a combined-effects munition with both a thermobaric charge for maximum blast effect against buildings and a body filled with 9-mm metal balls that act as shrapnel, with a lethal radius of hundreds of feet.

The camera (of which no details were given) and data link means that the Geran-3 can send back information about the target area, and give visual evidence of whether it has hit a target. It could also be used as a giant FPV attack drone against tactical targets. There have been reports of Shaheds used in this way, and some discussion about whether drones should be diverted from the strategic campaign for tactical use.

Interceptors Vs Shaheds

Previously a large proportion of Shaheds had been shot down by mobile defence groups with machine guns and automatic cannons. They may have a much harder time against jet-powered drones.

Ukraine is also fielding increasing numbers of small interceptor drones which have had considerable success at downing Shaheds. These are generally propeller-powered with speeds ranging from 120 mph to over 200 mph for Wild Hornets’ latest.

A jet-powered drone which can make its attack run at 230 mph raises the bar and will be an extremely difficult target for slower interceptors.

Ukrainian developers have seen this threat coming ever since the Shahed-238 was unveiled in 2023 and have been preparing for it. In an interview with Novyny.Live, Pavlo Palisa of the Office of the President, stated that among the interceptors being fielded were high-speed versions capable taking down the new jet-powered Geran-3.

“They are already in use,” said Palisa. “The enemy is constantly developing, and we are not staying still. We have no other choice.”

Meanwhile Ukraine has been building and using its own jet-powered attack drones in combination with other types since 2024.

The arms race is on. Russia will build as many upgraded, jet-powered drones as possible, mixed in with slower drones and decoys to overwhelm defenses. Ukraine is producing advanced interceptors at pace. The rest of the world – which is not yet armed with jet drones, or interceptors to stop them – are spectators, for the time being.