Coinbase Stock Price Forecast as Headwinds Rise: Will it Hit $100?

Key Insights

• Coinbase stock price has slumped from last year’s high of $443 to $170 today.
• The company is facing major headwinds, including falling trading volume.
• It is losing market share to companies like Hyperliquid and Aster.

Coinbase stock price is hovering above a crucial support level as the crypto winter continues. It has already slumped by 61% from its 2025 highs. Also, the rising headwinds mean that it may be on the cusp of a big drop to $100.

Coinbase Stock Price is Facing Major Headwinds as CEX Volume Drops

COIN has dropped sharply in the past few months as the company has faced major headwinds. This may lead to more downside. A key challenge is that the ongoing crypto winter has led to a big drop in volume in the centralized exchange industry.

Bitcoin price remains much lower than the all-time high of 126,200. At the same time, Ethereum has dropped to $2,100 from the all-time high of nearly $5,000. The market capitalization of all tokens has dropped to $2.3 trillion from the all-time high of over $4.2 trillion.

Data compiled by CryptoQuant shows that the volume handled in March across the crypto industry was $4.3 trillion. On the other hand, the first quarter volume fell by nearly 50%.

Falling volume in the centralized exchange industry directly impacts Coinbase. Since most of its revenue comes from handling transactions, reduced trading activity significantly pressures its earnings.

The most recent financial results showed that Coinbase generated $4.05 billion in annual transaction revenue last year. Its subscription and services revenue stood at $2.82 billion.

This decline explains why Wall Street analysts are pessimistic about the upcoming earnings. Analysts estimate that Coinbase’s revenue fell 23% in the first quarter to $1.56 billion. This marks its weakest performance in years.

The volume in the crypto industry will only rebound when there is a new crypto market rally. That’s unlikely as the Bitcoin price has formed a bearish flag pattern on the three-day chart. That pattern points to more downside, which will have an impact on the broader crypto market.

Perpetual DEX Volume Has Soared

Coinbase is facing other major headwinds. For example, there are signs that perpetual decentralized exchanges are rapidly gaining market share in the crypto trading industry. Data compiled by DeFi Llama shows that Hyperliquid has handled over $196 billion in volume in the last 30 days.

The top five biggest perpetual DEX platforms like Aster, Lighter, edgeX, and Gvrt have handled over $300 billion in volume in the same period.

Hyperliquid, in particular, has become popular among traders focusing on the crude oil market, which has become highly volatile amid the ongoing Iranian crisis.

Another challenge facing Coinbase is that the prediction market is growing, with companies like Kalshi and Polymarket gaining market share. Many traders who were using Coinbase are now shifting to the prediction markets.

While Coinbase has launched a prediction marketplace, it has done so by collaborating with Kalshi, meaning that its revenue will be limited.

Still, on the positive side, Coinbase has launched more solutions to offset its weakness in the crypto industry. For example, it has now become a major player in the tokenization industry, where it is now offering stocks and ETFs.

Coinbase Stock Price Sits Above a Crucial Support

The three-day chart shows that the COIN stock price has plunged in the past few months. It is now hovering near a key support level. That connects the lowest swings in September 2024, April 2025, and February this year.

Coinbase has always rebounded whenever it moved to that trendline. However, there are signs that it has now formed a small bearish flag pattern, which will lead to more downside.

A drop below the trendline will confirm the bearish outlook. It will likely drive more downside toward the psychological $100 level. A rebound above the $212 resistance will invalidate the bearish case. It will then point to more upside potential.

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