Bitcoin Leads Risk-Off Move as Macro Pressure Grows

TLDR

• Bitwise says Bitcoin often reacts before equities during liquidity shifts.
• Bitcoin and Ether hit cycle lows as the Nasdaq fell 5%.
• US 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.53% after strong labor data.
• Global M2 climbed to $122.6 trillion despite a crypto retracement.
• SSR RSI dropped to 13, signaling oversold liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin traded near $62,000 as Bitwise linked its pullback to tightening financial conditions. The asset manager said BTC often acts as a “canary in the macro coal mine.” It argued that recent price action reflects a broader risk-off shift across global markets.

Bitcoin Moves Ahead of Equities in Risk Repricing

Bitwise reported that Bitcoin and Ether fell to $58,000 and $1,507 during the recent downturn. At the same time, the Nasdaq posted a 5% daily decline, its sharpest drop in months. South Korea’s KOSPI also halted trading temporarily after a heavy sell-off in semiconductor stocks.

The firm said Bitcoin usually reacts before traditional markets because it trades around the clock. “BTC often acts as a canary in the macro coal mine,” Bitwise stated. It added that crypto prices adjust quickly to liquidity changes while equities respond later.

Stronger US labor data reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. As a result, the US 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.53% after reaching 4.68% last month. Higher-for-longer rate expectations pressured growth-sensitive assets across markets.

Liquidity Data Shows Stablecoin Buying Power

A chart comparing Bitcoin, the Nasdaq, and Global M2 shows diverging trends. Global M2 rose to about $122.6 trillion over the past year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin retreated sharply from its $126,000 cycle high.

Bitwise said the pattern suggests Bitcoin may have repriced earlier than equities. If liquidity conditions improve later, the firm sees room for renewed price response. It noted that global liquidity continues to expand despite recent volatility.

Onchain metrics also highlight available capital within crypto markets. Independent analyst Maartunn said the stablecoin supply ratio RSI fell to 13, an oversold level. He explained that lower SSR readings indicate larger stablecoin balances relative to Bitcoin’s market value.

The SSR compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with major stablecoins like USDT and USDC. Historically, similar readings appeared near accumulation zones before stronger price periods. Exchange data supports this view with stablecoin reserves near $72 billion.

USDT accounts for $57.7 billion of exchange balances, while USDC holds about $12 billion. Although reserves declined from peaks above $80 billion in late 2025, levels remain elevated. Bitcoin now trades near the lower end of its recent range as liquidity stays positioned on exchanges.

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