Ethereum-Tether ratio hits support, signaling possible rally

Ethereum may be showing early signs that the market is nearing a major rally. The asset has bled capital since peaking in September 2025, with its market valuation falling by $373.83 billion. That drop is larger than its current valuation. Yet the data suggests Ethereum’s market cap could hold the answer to whether the downtrend continues or a reversal is near.

Ethereum and Tether market caps converge for the first time

Ethereum’s market capitalization and Tether’s have hit the same level for the first time ever. Both reached roughly $186.87 billion. While the convergence is already a rare occurrence, the ratio tracking these two assets against each other reveals something more important. It has reached the support of the descending channel it trades within.

The ratio, now at 1.03, has touched that support. Similar trading zones have previously marked Ethereum’s bottom and led to rallies. More broadly, this indicator has correctly called Ethereum’s turning points on eight occasions. That includes four tops and four bottoms. If the pattern holds, Ethereum could begin a multi-week rally that recovers the capital that left the asset over the past few months.

US investors send mixed signals on Ethereum

US investors are a key group to watch. The data shows a constant bid that started on May 28. The Coinbase Premium Index measures the gap between Ethereum’s US spot price and its price on global exchange Binance. It points to strong demand, rising from -0.17 to -0.04. A rise here means US demand outpaces the global market on Binance. Yet that hasn’t translated into buying across the board. Data from US spot Ethereum ETFs shows mostly sell-offs.

Between May 28 and the last trading session, the funds recorded outflows every single day except June 4. On that day, total net flow came in at $19.04 million. Spot Ethereum ETF flows remain a fraction of total US trading. That suggests a disparity. I think traditional investors are heavily bearish while crypto-inclined investors stay firmly bullish.

Ethereum’s broader flows turn toward sellers

Buying outweighed selling pressure across the spot market between May 28 and early June. More Ethereum was bought than sold over that stretch. But over the past 48 hours, sell pressure has built. Total net flow reached $113.63 million, and sellers now dominate.

A sell-off of this scale could amount to a simple correction. That’s notable because the June 7 sell net flow was significantly higher at $111.12 million, compared to $2.51 million recorded at the time of writing on June 8. How this develops is worth watching. What comes next for Ethereum will depend on activity from US investors and the broader investor base alike.

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