Oracle (ORCL) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Earnings Today

TLDR

• Wall Street expects Oracle to report EPS of $1.97 on revenue of $19.1 billion, up 20% year-over-year
• Cloud revenue is forecast at $9.99 billion, with Cloud Infrastructure up 90.8% YoY to $5.17 billion
• Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) has a $553 billion backlog, with over half tied to a single OpenAI contract
• Remaining performance obligations (RPOs) are expected to hit $589.5 billion, up 327%
• Oracle’s debt and lease liabilities jumped 68% to $162 billion as capital spending surges

Oracle (ORCL) reports its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings after the bell on Wednesday, and the numbers Wall Street is watching are big.

Oracle Corporation, ORCL

The stock closed at $205.81 on Monday, down 2.84% on the day, and has dropped around 17% since the start of June.

Analysts expect Oracle to post adjusted EPS of $1.97, up from $1.70 a year ago. Revenue is projected at $19.1 billion, a 20% increase year-over-year.

The cloud segment is the main story. Total cloud revenue is expected to come in at $9.99 billion, with Cloud Applications at $4.16 billion and Cloud Infrastructure at $5.17 billion — that last figure representing a 90.8% jump from a year ago.

Remaining performance obligations, which track signed contracts not yet delivered, are forecast to reach $589.5 billion, up 327%. That number has become one of the most closely watched metrics for AI infrastructure demand.

The OCI Backlog

Oracle Cloud Infrastructure is at the center of Oracle’s growth story. The unit currently carries a $553 billion backlog, with more than half of that tied to a single multiyear contract with OpenAI, which signed a $300 billion, five-year deal with Oracle in 2025.

In fiscal 2030, Oracle expects OCI revenue to hit $166 billion — roughly three-quarters of total company revenue. That would effectively transform Oracle from a legacy software company into an AI infrastructure business.

The execution risks are real. Oracle is competing for land, power, and chips needed to build out data centers at scale. There have already been delays in the buildout.

Oracle beat Q3 expectations in March and raised its 2027 revenue guidance to $90 billion, which helped lift the stock. But year-to-date, ORCL is up just 4.8%.

For context, Amazon (AMZN) is up roughly 12% over the last 12 months, while Microsoft (MSFT) is down more than 14%. Google (GOOGL) leads the group, up more than 103% in the same period.

The Cost of the Pivot

The shift to cloud infrastructure is expensive. Oracle’s debt and lease liabilities rose 68% last quarter to $162 billion. There’s another $261 billion in lease liabilities that hadn’t yet commenced as of February.

Free cash flow has essentially dried up. The company is filling that gap with debt, and potentially future equity offerings.

Depreciation expenses have climbed to 12.5% of total company sales, up from 7.1% a year ago, as capital spending hits the income statement. Adjusted operating margin is expected to fall to 43% this quarter, down from 44% in fiscal 2025.

Meanwhile, the broader software sector is under pressure. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF is down 12% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has gained 8%. The concern: AI could disrupt traditional subscription-based software models entirely.

Oracle closed Monday’s session at $205.81, with pre-market indicating a further decline to around $201.00 ahead of the Wednesday report.

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