Can XRP price rebound from $1.10 as Binance reserves fall?

XRP traded near $1.11 on June 10 after losing about 4% in 24 hours and more than 10% across seven days. 

The token moved between $1.10 and $1.16 as the wider crypto market remained weak.

The price sits about 70% below its July 2025 record of $3.65. Momentum is oversold, but on-chain data shows holders continue to realize losses while XRP Ledger activity has cooled.

XRP price tests the $1.10 support zone

The daily chart keeps a bearish structure after XRP formed lower highs and lower lows. Price remains below the Supertrend level at $1.2638, making $1.26 to $1.33 the first major resistance zone.

The relative strength index stands at 29.03, below its average of 31.48. A reading under 30 places XRP in oversold territory, but it does not confirm that sellers have finished. The RSI must recover above 30 and then 50 to show stronger momentum.

Immediate support sits near $1.10. A daily close below that level could expose $1.00, followed by $0.90. Buyers must reclaim $1.16 and $1.21 before challenging the Supertrend barrier.

Market analyst EGRAG Crypto says a falling wedge and several Fibonacci tools point toward a possible macro decision zone. The analyst places the main bullish trigger between $1.66 and $2.00.

Targets of $8.48, $13.70, $18.06 and $27.68 depend on several unconfirmed breakouts. They remain chart projections rather than measured forecasts. XRP would need to gain more than 49% just to reach $1.66.

On-chain losses show pressure on XRP holders

Glassnode reported that the 90-day average of XRP’s realized profit-to-loss ratio fell to 0.38. That means holders realized only 38 cents in profit for every dollar recorded in losses.

A ratio below 1 shows that loss-taking outweighs profitable selling. Glassnode described the reading as intense capitulation because participants moving coins on-chain are accepting losses at a much higher rate.

XRP Ledger activity has weakened at the same time. The 90-day average of total transaction fees fell from about 5,900 XRP in February 2025 to roughly 500 XRP, a drop of more than 91%.

Lower fees reduce user costs, but the change also points to weaker transaction demand. The decline makes it harder to argue that current price weakness is occurring alongside expanding organic network use.

As earlier reported by crypto.news, XRP entered a stop-loss phase after its spent output profit ratio moved below 1. Coins were changing hands at an average loss while the chart continued to form lower highs.

Falling Binance reserves offer a limited bullish signal

CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain reported that Binance’s XRP reserves fell to about 2.69 billion tokens. The figure marks the lowest level in four months after balances previously remained above 2.8 billion XRP.

Falling exchange reserves can reduce the number of tokens available for immediate sale. Holders may be moving XRP into private wallets, custody services or other platforms instead of keeping it on Binance.

The signal does not prove accumulation or guarantee a rebound. Exchange balances can also change because of internal wallet management, transfers between platforms or custody movements.

As previously reported by crypto.news, exchange reserves have fallen sharply during earlier phases of XRP’s decline without producing an immediate supply squeeze. Price continued to weaken while balances moved off Binance, showing that demand still decides whether lower exchange supply supports a rally.

The reserve decline offers a counterweight to bearish indicators rather than a confirmed reversal signal. XRP needs stronger spot demand and improving network activity before reduced Binance balances can support a lasting recovery.

XRP needs $1.26 reclaim before macro targets matter

The short-term setup depends on whether buyers can protect $1.10. A bounce above $1.16 would restore the top of the latest daily range, while $1.21 forms the next recovery level.

The larger test sits at $1.2638 and the $1.26 to $1.33 resistance band. A sustained close above that zone would weaken the Supertrend’s bearish signal and bring $1.40 and $1.66 into focus.

Failure to hold $1.10 would keep $1.00 and $0.90 in view. EGRAG Crypto also identifies $0.60 as deeper macro support if the wedge breaks downward, although no move to that level has been confirmed.

Oversold RSI readings can support a relief bounce, and falling Binance reserves may limit immediate sell-side supply. However, realized losses, lower network fees and a bearish Supertrend show that XRP has not confirmed a durable bottom.

For now, $1.10 remains the main defense, while $1.26 is the first level needed to change the technical picture. The wider bullish targets remain inactive unless XRP breaks the wedge and reclaims higher resistance.