Oklo Stock: Analysts See 64% Upside Despite 42% Six-Month Drop

TLDR

• OKLO stock is down ~42% over the past six months and 20% year-to-date
• A May 26 announcement about a U.S. Department of Energy plutonium program sent the stock up 9% at open, but gains faded quickly
• Oklo is building a $1.6 billion nuclear fuel recycling facility in Tennessee, with construction starting in 2027
• Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus, with an average price target of $92.69 — implying ~64% upside
• Oklo posted a net loss of $33 million in Q1 2026, up from $9.8 million a year earlier, with no revenue yet

Oklo (OKLO) stock is trading around $56, down roughly 42% over the past six months and 20% year-to-date. The company continues to burn cash with no revenue, and investors have been waiting for a catalyst that sticks.

Oklo Inc., OKLO

That wait got a brief moment of hope on May 26. Oklo announced it had been selected, alongside four other companies, for advanced negotiations under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Surplus Plutonium Utilization Program. The stock opened 9% higher that day. By the end of the week, most of those gains had evaporated.

The program, if finalized, would see plutonium converted into fuel for advanced reactors. Oklo would partner with European nuclear developer newcleo on the project. CEO Jacob DeWitte described the material as “bridge fuel” that could help bring reactors online sooner.

Separately, Oklo has bigger infrastructure plans in motion. The company is developing a $1.6 billion nuclear fuel recycling facility in Tennessee. It plans to tap into the more than 94,000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel stored at U.S. power plant sites — material the company says holds energy equivalent to about five times the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia.

Construction on that facility isn’t expected to begin until 2027, with commissioning targeted for the early 2030s. That timeline underlines just how early-stage this company still is.

Financials Show Mounting Losses

Oklo’s Q1 2026 net loss came in at over $33 million, compared to $9.8 million in the same quarter a year ago. The company generates no revenue. Until that changes, the stock is likely to remain volatile and dependent on news flow for any price movement.

That said, there are real partnerships on the books. Oklo has a 1.2-gigawatt power agreement with Meta Platforms and ongoing relationships with Nvidia and Los Alamos National Laboratory. Grid interconnection filings are active, and the company is working through a new regulatory pathway that could speed up future reactor approvals.

What Analysts Are Saying

Wall Street is holding a cautiously positive view. The consensus rating is Moderate Buy, based on 10 Buy ratings and 7 Holds over the past three months.

The average analyst price target sits at $92.69, implying roughly 64% upside from current levels.

Wedbush’s Daniel Ives has a price target of $110, representing nearly 95% upside. He points to Oklo’s build-own-operate model as a differentiator — rather than selling reactors, Oklo intends to own and run its plants, potentially generating recurring revenue over time.

William Blair’s Jed Dorsheimer maintained his Buy rating earlier this month, citing progress at Idaho National Laboratory and a potential project in Alaska as positive signals.

The most accurate analyst on the stock over the past two years, according to TipRanks, is Ryan Pfingst of B. Riley Securities. He carries a 71% success rate on OKLO calls and has a Buy rating with a $92 price target.

Pfingst ranks #459 out of more than 12,000 analysts tracked on the platform.

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