Fear of voter backlash could lead to separate Penang polls, say analysts

PETALING JAYA: Penang chief minister Chow Kon Yeow’s reluctance to hold a state assembly election simultaneously with the parliamentary general election may be driven by concern that the elections could become a referendum on Pakatan Harapan’s performance in the federal government, say two analysts.

James Chin and Francis Hutchinson said although Chow’s government has more than two years left, a separate state election would give Penang PH more room to defend its hold.

Parliament’s term expires in February 2028, while the Penang state assembly’s term expires only in August 2028. However, both legislatures could be dissolved at an earlier date.

Chin said that DAP, as a whole, was unsure of the sentiment on the ground, with party leaders receiving complaints from voters whenever they meet them. Another problem that DAP could not run away from was that voters would conflate state and federal-related issues.

“People will still say that DAP are part of the Madani government, and they’ll blame the UEC failure on DAP. And these issues will still crop up even though it is a state election,” he told FMT.

DAP has long tried to obtain government recognition of the United Examination Certificate of independent Chinese schools.

Chin said a separate state assembly election would give DAP a better chance of keeping the contest from becoming fully dominated by federal politics. Voters could register their discontent with DAP at the parliamentary general election but allow the party to remain in power in Penang through the state assembly elections, albeit with a reduced majority.

“The Chinese voters are not willing to let the DAP government fall in Penang,“ Chin said.

Francis Hutchinson of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute suggested “self-preservation” as a motivating factor for Chow to hold the state election separately.

“If PH loses the general election they may still retain Penang, and potentially Selangor, thus reverting to the 2008 to 2018 period,” he said, referring to the time when PH was in parliamentary opposition, but formed the government in several states.

Such an outcome was still better for PH than BN controlling both federal and state governments, he said.

Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat said calling for a state election now would be a waste of public funds.

A delay would give Chow and allies more room to deal with the national sentiment.

He said if PH did badly at the national parliamentary elections, the coalition’s supporters were more likely to come out in droves at a state election to keep PH in power in Penang. “And if PH does well (at the federal election), then it can ride on the positive wave,” he said.