Will Whales Block Bullish Outlook?

• Bitcoin price is eyeing a retest of a crucial resistance level around $99k.
  
• Onchain data shows Bitcoin whales aggressively sold in Q4 2025 and have not shown renewed interest.
  
• The supportive cumulative fundamentals are a major bullish signal for BTC in 2026.
  

The impressive Bitcoin (BTC) price rebound in 2026 has not invalidated the midterm bearish sentiment. The crypto community is eagerly waiting for the Bitcoin price to consistently close above $99k catalyzed by whale investors.

Bitcoin Price Approaches Crucial Turning Point for 2026

BTC Whales Losses Grip 

According to onchain data analysis from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s realized price for new whales short-term holders, and old whales long-term holders, excluding miners and CEXs, has dropped to $99k. As such, Crypto Rover stated that the Bitcoin price is approaching a crucial resistance level, due to the positivity of new whales short-term holders selling at $99k to break even.

CryptoQuant’s data also shows that large-Bitcoin investors have not been buying the dip after capitulating in 2025. Specifically, Bitcoin addresses for whales holding between 1K and 10K BTC are down 220K BTC year over year, the fastest decline since early 2023.

As such, Crypto Rover stated that $99k will be a crucial resistance for Bitcoin to break in order to validate a parabolic rally in 2026.

Related: Four Reasons Bitcoin Could Be Back on Track for Six-Digit Once Again

Fear of Possible U.S. Government Shutdown 

Crypto Rover also noted that the Bitcoin price is approaching a hawkish event, after President Donald Trump announced that there might be another government shutdown starting on January 30, 2026.

During the last U.S. government shutdown, BTC price dropped nearly 20%. As such, a potential U.S. government shutdown, amid the low BTC demand from whales, will further fuel midterm bearish sentiment.

Bigger Picture: the BTC/XAU Short-squeeze 

Despite the above scenario likely to play out in the near term, the global crypto community is holding onto the idea that the four-year Bitcoin cycle is over. Wall Street analysts, led by Tom Lee, have advocated for a Bitcoin supercycle catalyzed by the cumulative strong fundamentals and the anticipated capital rotation from the precious metal industry.

For more than 8 months, Gold and Silver have registered consecutive new monthly all-time highs (ATHs). However, the Bitcoin price has been trapped in choppy consolidation, whereby it dropped over 10% in 2025.

From a technical analysis standpoint, capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin is about to accelerate in tandem with the rising global money supply. Notably, the BTC/XAU pair in the daily timeframe has formed a potential reversal pattern characterized by an inverse head and shoulders (H&S) shape coupled with a rising divergence of an oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI).

As such, Bitcoin price is well positioned to rally through $99k in the near future catalyzed by the supportive macroeconomic backdrop.