ETHFI Technical Analysis Feb 23

ETHFI continues in a dominant descending trend structure (LH/LL), but divergences like the positive MACD histogram could signal a trend reversal. Critical BOS levels to watch are above $0.4310 and below $0.3810.

Market Structure Overview

ETHFI is trading at $0.42 with a weak performance, down 6.81% in the last 24 hours. Market structure analysis clearly shows a lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL) pattern instead of higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL), confirming the dominance of the downtrend. Trading below the short-term EMA20 ($0.48) reinforces the bearish short-term structure. The Supertrend signal is bearish, positioned at resistance $0.55. RSI at 34.52 is approaching oversold territory, while the MACD shows a positive histogram indicating bullish divergence. In the multi-timeframe (MTF) structure, a total of 10 strong levels were identified across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 2 supports/1 resistance on 1D, 1 support/3 resistances on 3D, and 3 supports/4 resistances on 1W, showing resistance dominance in higher timeframes. This structure highlights bearish breakdown ($0.2265) for trend continuation or bullish BOS ($0.6063) for reversal.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

Bullish signals are limited within the downtrend; however, the positive MACD histogram and RSI’s oversold position at 34.52 could support a short-term higher low (HL) formation. If it holds the recent swing low at $0.4160, a breakout above the $0.4310 swing high could initiate an HH/HL structure. This would mean a test toward the $0.48 EMA20 and $0.55 Supertrend resistances. Still, the overall MTF resistance abundance keeps bullish continuation weak (target $0.6063, score 46/100).

Downtrend Risk

Dominant LH/LL structure: Recent successive lower highs (from $0.46 to $0.4310) and lower lows (tests below $0.4160) confirm the downtrend. Testing the $0.42 at the $0.4160 swing low strengthens the LL pattern. A bearish breakdown below the $0.3810 swing low would lead to the $0.2265 target (score 22/100). BTC’s downtrend also increases LL pressure on altcoins.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS (Break of Structure) refers to critical breakouts that confirm trend changes. For bullish BOS, a close above the $0.4310 swing high (score 74/100) is required; this breaks the recent LH, signaling a shift to HL and opening the path to $0.48 EMA. Bearish BOS is below the $0.3810 swing low (score 67/100), reinforcing LH/LL and descending to $0.2265. The $0.4160 intermediate support (score 65/100) acts as a temporary buffer. These levels are key for structure invalidation: An upside BOS invalidates the current downtrend, while a downside BOS continues it. Stay vigilant, as the market is volatile.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

The recent swing high at $0.4310 (score 74/100) acts as resistance as the latest LH in the downtrend. This level, lower than the previous $0.46 high, confirms the LH pattern. A breakout would serve as a pivot for bullish momentum; staying below increases short opportunities. Previous swing highs ($0.55 Supertrend) should be monitored as distant targets.

Recent Swing Lows

The $0.3810 main swing low (score 67/100) is strong support; a break triggers a major bearish BOS. The $0.4160 (score 65/100) is nearby support, just below the current $0.42. These lows form the LL structure; holding them offers hope for HL, but MTF resistances dominate. Swing points are critical for entries/exits: Support holds give long setups, breaks give short setups.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $65,232 in downtrend (down 4.16%), with bearish Supertrend and rising dominance signaling caution for altcoins. ETHFI is highly correlated with BTC; if BTC breaks supports at $65,632/$63,733, ETHFI’s LH/LL will accelerate, making a $0.3810 test inevitable. If BTC breaks above $68,239 resistance, it could trigger ETHFI’s $0.4310 BOS. BTC’s key supports ($60,000) support ETHFI’s bearish target ($0.2265); dominance effect keeps alts weak. Monitor BTC structure in parallel for ETHFI Spot Analysis and ETHFI Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

ETHFI structure is clearly in an LH/LL downtrend; consolidation around $0.42, but BTC downtrend and position below EMA maintain bearish bias. Bullish invalidation above $0.4310 BOS, bearish continuation below $0.3810. Short-term MACD/RSI divergences suggest bounce potential, but MTF resistances make reversal difficult. Follow swing levels disciplinedly to avoid breaking the structure: $0.4310+ for shift to HH/HL, $0.3810- for LL deepening. No news requires staying technically focused. Risk management is essential; volatility is high.