OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that Gold has extended its rebound as markets reprice tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risks, including potential US–Iran escalation. The bank argues the late-January pullback was a normalisation rather than a structural reversal, with safe-haven demand underpinned by trade fragmentation concerns and inflation spillovers. Technicals now point to renewed upside risks above key support.
Safe-haven bid and technical recovery
“Gold extended its rebound, climbing back above the 5,220 level and briefly testing 5,228, marking a near 5% recovery from last week’s low around 4,960. Price action reflects a re-pricing of fresh policy (tariff) uncertainty and geopolitical concerns. The move also reinforces our earlier view that the late-January pullback was more of a normalisation phase rather than a structural trend reversal.”
“Renewed demand for hedges following fresh tariff rhetoric from President Trump revives safe-haven demand. Markets are reassessing trade fragmentation risks and the potential spillover into global growth, supply chains and inflation pass-through. Meanwhile, the risk of geopolitical escalation between US-Iran is also another driver keeping prices of gold supported.”
“Technically, the recovery above the 5,050–5,150 zone (prior congestion area) shifts near-term bias back to upside risk. Bearish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI rose. Immediate resistance sits around the recent high near 5,230/50 levels, with a clean break potentially reopening a retest of the 5,350 levels.”
“On the downside, 5,120 now serves as first support, followed by 5024 (21 DMA), 4850 levels.”
“AI scares, tariff uncertainty and geopolitics triggered a classic risk-off, boosting gold and safe-havens while yields fell. Markets now eye chip earnings, US–Iran talks and Fed signals, with USD shorts vulnerable to a squeeze if tensions rise.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-upside-risks-rebuild-on-tariff-fears-ocbc-202602240920
