Pi Coin Price Faces Breakdown — or This 60% Surge Saves It?

The Pi Coin price is showing early signs of recovery, up almost 3% since today, as rare buying activity appears per exchange data. This comes as Pi Network’s mainnet migration surged sharply, highlighting growing network participation.

However, despite improving fundamentals and fresh accumulation, Pi Coin still faces a major technical breakdown risk. The coming days could decide whether the recent rebound strengthens into a recovery or turns into a deeper crash towards a new all-time low.

PI Sees Rare Buying as Network Migration Surges 60%

Pi Network’s latest data shows a sharp increase in mainnet migrations. Mainnet migration is the process by which users move their mined coins from the app into the live blockchain, making them fully usable and tradable.

Total migrations have now crossed 16.2 million, compared to 10.1 million recorded earlier in 2025, representing a surge of over 60%, relative to 2025. This shows more users are completing verification and joining the live network, strengthening Pi Network’s ecosystem.

At the same time, Pi Coin is seeing a rare shift in exchange flows. Exchange netflow recently turned negative by 305,547 Pi, over the past 24 hours, meaning more coins are leaving exchanges than entering. Exchange netflow measures the difference between deposits and withdrawals. Negative netflow usually signals accumulation.

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This is notable because Pi Coin has mostly seen consistent selling pressure in recent weeks. The shift suggests early accumulation may be starting just as network fundamentals improve. This rare buying activity could help stabilize Pi Coin after its recent decline, down 10% over the past week.

Inverted Cup Pattern and Bearish Divergence Warn of Breakdown Risk

Despite improving fundamentals, Pi Coin’s price structure still shows weakness. The chart currently shows an inverted cup and handle pattern, which is a bearish pattern where the price rises, peaks, and then slowly declines before a breakdown.

Recently, Pi Coin rebounded about 7% from its latest low, forming the handle portion of this pattern. However, this recovery may only be temporary.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum from 0 to 100, is showing a hidden bearish divergence.

Between January 22 and February 24:

• Pi Coin price is currently forming a lower high
• RSI is forming a higher high

This mismatch signals weakening trend strength and often leads to further downside.

If this bearish pattern confirms, Pi Coin could fall significantly. For immediate confirmation of the divergence, the next price candle must form under $0.166. The breakdown target sits at 32% if the divergence-led pullback breaks the cup’s neckline.

This shows the technical risk remains serious despite improving fundamentals.

Smart Money Activity and Key Price Levels Decide Pi Coin’s Next Move

The only major support currently comes from smart money activity. The Smart Money Index tracks buying behavior from experienced investors. It helps identify whether strong hands are accumulating or exiting.

Smart money began rising sharply on February 13, which helped Pi Coin rally nearly 54% in just two days.

Although smart money weakened during the recent correction, it has not dropped below its signal line and is now trying to rise again. This suggests experienced investors may still be positioning for another rebound.

For recovery to strengthen, Pi Coin must reclaim key resistance levels. The first major level is $0.187. Breaking above this level would show renewed strength. The next critical resistance is $0.207. A move above this level would invalidate the bearish pattern and confirm recovery.

However, if Pi Coin closes below $0.154 on a daily basis, the breakdown could be confirmed. This could push Pi Coin toward $0.108 initially (a new bottom) and possibly much lower if selling accelerates.

For now, Pi Coin sits at a critical turning point. Growing Pi Network adoption and rare buying activity signal an early recovery. But technical weakness still threatens a deeper breakdown. The next move will likely decide Pi Coin’s direction for the coming weeks.