Cardano ETF Approval Odds Hit 87% as Grayscale Updates SEC Filing

• Grayscale has filed an amended S-1 with the SEC for a Cardano ETF (GADA), with custody by Coinbase and a possible staking feature.
• Approval odds have surged to 87%, with the SEC set to decide by October 26, 2025.

Grayscale has submitted an amended S-1 filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Cardano (ADA) exchange-traded fund (ETF). Earlier this month, the company submitted a 19b-4 application, with a determination to push forward with a regulated ADA investment product. 

If approved, the ETF will trade on the NYSE Arca under the ticker symbol GADA. It will hold ADA directly, with custody managed by Coinbase Custody. The fund will track the CoinDesk Cardano Index (ADX) to reflect ADA’s price movements.

According to the filings, shares of the ETF will be issued in blocks of 10,000. The filing also suggested the product may also open the door to ADA staking, which would allow the trust to earn rewards directly from the blockchain. This would make it one of the first regulated crypto ETFs with such a feature.

Odds of Cardano ETFs Approval Climb

Market sentiment toward the ETF has improved sharply. Prediction platform Polymarket shows approval odds at 87%, up from 75% just a week earlier. This represents a strong rebound after a dip in August, when estimates briefly slipped as low as 75%.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart confirmed Grayscale’s updated paperwork. He also noted that the firm filed similar documents for a Polkadot ETF, reinforcing its long-term commitment to building regulated crypto investment products.

The SEC’s deadline for a decision is October 26, 2025. With both the S-1 and 19b-4 filings in place, the chances for Grayscale to secure approval within this timeframe are high.

Cardano Price and Market Performance

Cardano is still the 10th largest cryptocurrency, with a market capitalization close to $30 billion. At press time, ADA trades at $0.82 with a slight movement upwards. The community has welcomed the latest filing some such as Cardanians.io on X, calling it a major milestone in the project’s growth. ADA is still struggling with the rest of the market, registering an almost 10% drop in the last 7 days.

If the ETF is approved, it would allow traditional investors and advisors to gain exposure to ADA without directly handling the cryptocurrency. For Cardano, this could bring significant new liquidity and recognition, which ultimately is a good thing for an upward price movement. So far, only Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have been approved