Africa’s export trade pivots to Asia as U.S. terms falter, Standard Bank survey shows

• Africa’s export trade with Asian partners is gaining momentum, driven by competitive pricing and supply-chain reliability, as uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and the future of AGOA erodes confidence in the transatlantic corridor, the latest Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer reveals.

For the first time, a significant number of firms in Africa now view Asia, led by economic giant China, as their most critical trading partner, the latest Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer shows. This shift is accelerated by the tariff-heavy policies of U.S. President Donald Trump administration and the uncertainly surrounding the short-term nature of the renewed U.S. trade pact.

Additionally, the fifth edition of the barometer, which was published on Thursday, paints a picture of a continent at a strategic inflection point. While intra-African integration is finally showing signs of operational reality and infrastructure is improving across the board, the data exposes a profound reshaping of global trade preferences.

According to the report, which surveyed 2,218 firms across 10 markets accounting for 68 per cent of Sub-Saharan Africa‘s GDP, the proportion of businesses preferring to trade with Asian nations has surged to 35 per cent, up from 24 per cent in the previous iteration.

Conversely, the appeal of intra-African trade, while still robust, dipped to 32 per cent. The North Atlantic route is suffering the most significant erosion of confidence, with a meagre 4 per cent of businesses now favouring North America as a trade partner.

Africa’s Export Trade: Key Takeaways

• African businesses are decisively shifting their trade focus toward Asia, with China now the preferred partner for 36 per cent of firms. This is driven by competitive pricing, supply-chain reliability, and China’s forthcoming zero-tariff policy, which contrasts sharply with the unpredictability of the US market.
• Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. including the short-term, one-year renewal of AGOA and active tariff measures, has severely damaged confidence. Only 4 per cent of surveyed firms now favour North America as a trade partner.
• Across Africa, all major infrastructure categories (power, transport, digital systems) are improving, bolstered by a rapid shift to digital payments, with nearly 80 per cent of cross-border transactions now conducted digitally, facilitating smoother intra-African trade.

Impact of U.S. Tariffs and a One-Year AGOA Agreement Extension on Africa’s Export Trade

Standard Group findings on “Foreign Trade Dynamics” land at a moment of acute anxiety for African exporters who have long relied on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). While the U.S. Congress passed an extension of AGOA in early February, it was a stark departure from the usual multi-year renewals. The programme was extended for just one year, expiring at the end of 2026.

This reprieve, while welcomed, has done little to restore confidence. The short horizon makes long-term investment and planning nearly impossible for exporters in sectors from textiles to agriculture. “We are relieved, but also concerned about the short extension,” South Africa‘s Trade, Industry and Competition Minister, Parks Tau, said in a statement following the U.S. decision, explicitly voicing the sentiment now quantifiable in the barometer data.

The uncertainty is compounded by active tariff measures. Last year, Washington imposed significant tariffs on African nations, including a 30 per cent levy on South African goods, effectively nullifying much of the preferential access AGOA was designed to provide.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has signalled that the programme will be “modernised” to align with “America First” trade policy, suggesting that future access will come with stricter conditions and demands for reciprocal market access.

Economic analysts in Africa point to a fundamental breakdown of trust. “It is highly contradictory that, on the one hand, the United States imposes protectionist tariffs, while, on the other hand, it restores AGOA,” Teddy Kaberuka, a Rwandan economic analyst, told Xinhua. He added that the unpredictable policy swings “do not give leeway to exporters to develop long-term plans”. The barometer’s finding that only 4 per cent of firms favour North America is the statistical echo of this strategic disillusionment.

The China Counterweight: Zero-Tariffs and Reliability

In stark contrast, the Asian horizon appears stable and welcoming for African exporters. The barometer reveals that 36 per cent of surveyed firms identified China as their top trading partner, ranking it first as a source of imports and second as an export destination.

Additionally, a staggering 59 per cent of importers now cite Asian nations as their main source of inputs, up sharply from 48 per cent. Businesses credit Asian markets for “competitive pricing, product variety, faster response times and supply-chain reliability” as the drivers of this shift, according to the report.

This commercial reality is set to deepen significantly. On May 1, 2026, China will implement a sweeping policy of zero-tariff treatment for 100 per cent tax items from 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations. The move, which was announced during the recent African Union Summit, has been hailed by international leaders, including UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who urged other major economies to follow suit.

For African businesses buffeted by US policy swings, the Chinese offer provides what AGOA currently cannot: predictability and expansive scale. “China’s zero-tariff policy offers a fitting alternative solution for African exporters to offset U.S. tariffs,” said Straton Habyarimana, a Rwandan economic analyst.

He predicted the policy would boost export volumes and local investment. Uganda’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Henry Oryem Okello, noted the timing is crucial “as tariffs are increasingly being used globally as tools of economic pressure,” adding that it should make a “difference in driving Africa‘s industrialisation”.

Infrastructure and Integration: The Bright Spot Powering Trade in Africa

Beyond the geopolitical realignment, the Standard Bank Barometer’s fifth issue delivers a genuinely positive verdict on Africa‘s domestic trading environment. For the first time since the barometer’s launch, firms reported improvements across every major infrastructure category, power, roads, rail, ports, and digital border systems. This broad-based advance is credited to growing investment in logistics capacity and digital trade facilitation.

“Across the 10 markets we surveyed, firms reported improvements across every major infrastructure category,” said Philip Myburgh, Head of Trade for Business and Commercial Banking at Standard Bank Group. “This marks the first time since the Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer‘s launch that all infrastructure indicators have improved simultaneously.”

East Africa emerged as the strongest-performing sub-region, with a 10-percentage-point increase in export activity. Policy coordination, including the Kenya-Uganda trade reclassification and renewed Kenya-Tanzania commitments to remove non-tariff barriers, is reducing border delays and improving supply-chain reliability.

This is being matched by a digital revolution in payments. Digital payments now facilitate 78 per cent of cross-border sales and 79 per cent of purchases. The expansion of the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), which allows settlements in local currencies, and the recent launch of the COMESA Digital Retail Payments Platform are cutting costs and reducing reliance on the US dollar. Kenya’s Trade Minister, Lee Kinyanjui, described the new COMESA platform as a “game-changer” for small businesses.

The institutional framework for trade is also solidifying. The African Union recently inaugurated a dedicated Committee of Heads of State and Government to drive AfCFTA implementation, providing the strategic political leadership needed to move from “paper integration” to “functional integration,” a shift Nigeria’s Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu stressed was critical.

Regional value-chains

The macroeconomic picture supports the rising business confidence. Growth across the barometer markets is trending towards 4.3 per cent in 2026, supported by moderating inflation in seven of the ten economies. The business confidence index rose to 65, with most firms expecting stronger turnover. What’s more, commodity strength in gold, platinum, and copper has provided an additional uplift for exporters.

However, challenges remain. Climate-related pressures are a growing constraint, with 38 per cent of firms reporting demand shifts due to the negative impacts of climate. Domestically, while perceptions of government support are improving, 79 per cent of firms still view tax relief as the most critical measure needed to foster trade.

Ultimately, the Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer Issue 5 captures a continent whose internal fundamentals are strengthening just as its traditional external relationships are being tested. The pivot to Asia is not merely a reaction to US tariffs but a strategic embrace of a more predictable and expansive trade partner.

“As AfCFTA implementation deepens, and as more countries harmonise customs, regulatory frameworks and logistics platforms, Africa‘s ability to expand industrial capacity, scale regional value-chains and strengthen competitiveness is set to accelerate,” Myburgh concluded. The question lingering in the data is whether the US, now a marginal player in the preferences of African business, will act to rebuild a relationship that, for the moment, is defined by drift and dwindling relevance.

Read also: The AGOA Countdown: What the U.S. Senate Delay Means for Exporters

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