Trump's 'misunderstanding' of Iran war goals makes it impossible to broker peace: analysis
Peace appears impossible under the current understanding Donald Trump has of his war with Iran, according to a political analyst.
Whether the so-called peace president brings about regime change in Iran is yet to be seen, though many experts suggest it appears unlikely. Even if the Trump administration achieved such a change, it would be futile, according to Slate analyst Fred Kaplan, who believes there are too many reasons pitched as why the war began to even figure out a route towards ending the conflict.
This confusion means not only will Trump carry out the war, but that Iran has no reason to conclude it. Kaplan wrote, "Trump’s delusion seems to stem from the misunderstanding that war is all about blowing up targets.
"It’s true, U.S. Central Command has blown up a lot—more than 5,000 targets, according to the latest briefings—to the point where, as Trump said, there’s almost nothing left to hit. But wars are fought for political objectives.
"The problem is that Trump doesn’t know what his objectives in this war are. Or, worse still, he has proclaimed many objectives, some of them contradictory with one another, many of them inconsistent with objectives proclaimed by his top advisers, because they don’t know what his objectives are either.
"One day, it’s regime change (and, even within that goal, sometimes he says the people should rise up, sometimes he says he can deal with more moderate mullahs or officers taking power); other days, it’s to wipe out Iran’s nuclear potential, ballistic missiles, and navy (with nary a word about the regime or democracy)."
This ongoing uncertainty from the Trump admin makes it impossible for the current or former Iranian regime to even attempt to broker peace, according to the political analyst.
Kaplan added, "This confusion causes two sets of dreadful consequences. First, to the extent that Iran’s real or nascent leaders want to end the war, they don’t know what they need to say or do—and if they take seriously the talk of regime change, they see no point in trying to end the war, but will instead bring down as much around them, along with themselves, as they can."
It also adds pressure to military commanders "left in the dark" by Trump's flippant remarks. "The result, even by strictly military measures, is counterproductive," Kaplan wrote. "To achieve some objectives, restraint might be the best approach."
"For instance, if you just want to stop Iran’s nuclear program or destroy its ballistic missiles and navy, then you need to negotiate a surrender with Iranian authorities. But if you also kill those authorities, you have nobody to negotiate with—and so the war revs to a death spiral."
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