Broadcom (AVGO) Stock: Why Analysts Think $100B AI Revenue Target Is Too Low

TLDR

• GF Securities raised its price target on Broadcom (AVGO) to $450, citing higher expected Google TPU shipments
• Total TPU shipments now forecast at 4.5M units in 2026 and 7.9M in 2027, up from 6M previously
• Broadcom’s Ironwood and Sunfish chips are the only SKUs ready for customer testing right now
• CEO Hock Tan said the company has “line of sight” to over $100B in AI revenue in 2027
• Analysts suggest the $100B figure may actually be conservative, with some estimates pointing to $180B–$200B

Broadcom (AVGO) was trading at $320.55, up 0.71%, as of Wednesday morning.

Broadcom Inc., AVGO

Broadcom is drawing fresh attention after GF Securities raised its price target and analysts started questioning whether the company’s own $100B AI revenue forecast for 2027 is actually too low.

GF Securities analyst Alicia Xia lifted her price target on Broadcom to $450, up from a prior target, while keeping a Buy rating. The revision came after Xia raised her estimates for Google TPU shipments.

She now expects total TPU units to hit 4.5M in 2026 and 7.9M in 2027. The 2027 figure is a jump from her earlier forecast of 6M units, driven largely by expected external sales growth.

Broadcom’s own TPU units are projected at 4.1M in 2026 and 5.8M in 2027. The company’s Ironwood and Sunfish chips are currently the only SKUs ready for customer testing. A competing chip from MediaTek, called Zebrafish, hasn’t started testing yet, giving Broadcom a head start.

Xia also expects average selling prices to keep climbing, with Broadcom’s upcoming Pumafish chip likely topping $20,000 in 2027 due to its more complex design.

The $100B Question

The bigger story may be whether Broadcom’s own AI revenue forecast is understating what’s coming.

On the company’s March 4 earnings call, CEO Hock Tan said Broadcom has “line of sight” to over $100B in AI revenue in 2027. That already sounds big. But analysts on the call pushed back — not to lower the number, but to raise it.

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon tried to pin down a more precise estimate using gigawatts — a measure of the power capacity of data centers — as a unit. He counted up Broadcom’s known customer commitments: 3 GW from Anthropic, 1 GW from OpenAI, at least 2 GW from Meta, and at least 3 GW from Google. That puts his estimate at roughly 9–10 GW for 2027.

Tan confirmed the figure, saying Broadcom is “seeing it getting close to 10 gigawatts” in 2027.

Rasgon then applied his revenue-per-GW estimate of around $20B. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya backed this up, pointing to Broadcom’s 2026 Anthropic deployment — 1 GW expected to bring in $20B in revenue.

At $20B per GW and 10 GW, that math lands somewhere between $180B and $200B — well above the stated target.

Tan didn’t push back hard. He said the per-GW revenue can vary by customer, but agreed it’s “not far off.”

Supply Chain Locked In Through 2028

Broadcom has also secured supplies of leading-edge wafers, high-bandwidth memory, substrates, and T-glass through 2028 — a year beyond its current forecast horizon.

Melius analyst Ben Reitzes noted Broadcom was likely the first company to lock up these components that far out.

The current analyst consensus price target on AVGO sits at $435.30, implying around 36% upside from current levels, according to 33 analyst ratings.

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