Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

903 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
From Structural Constraints to the Future of Attention-Based Financial Infrastructure

From Structural Constraints to the Future of Attention-Based Financial Infrastructure

The post From Structural Constraints to the Future of Attention-Based Financial Infrastructure appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. HTX Research, the dedicated research arm of leading global crypto exchange HTX, has released its latest report, Prediction Markets: From Structural Bottlenecks to Infrastructure Revolution and the Future of Attention Assets, offering a structured analysis of the foundations, development trajectory, and long-term potential of prediction markets. The study discusses why prediction markets continue to confront structural limitations despite rapid growth, and whether they could ultimately become the pricing infrastructure for attention-based assets. Prediction Markets as Emerging Attention Economy: A Clear Contrast with Memecoins Prediction markets have grown rapidly. In the first ten months of 2025, global trading volume reached $27.9 billion, a 210% increase from 2024. Like Memecoins, prediction markets attract a high concentration of small-cap participants. However, the two operate on fundamentally different mechanisms. In prediction markets, participants can distribute small amounts across multiple events, with transparent odds and clear downside. Event structures allow informed users to convert domain knowledge into measurable returns—particularly in lower-liquidity markets where information gaps create opportunities. Memecoin trading follows a different pattern. On Pump.fun, 10,417 tokens are created daily, 98.6% of which are identified as manipulative and typically last less than three months. Prices move primarily on social momentum rather than probability. Information asymmetry heavily favors token creators, leaving ordinary users dependent on hype cycles rather than informed insight. Although prediction markets also spread through social channels, their traction comes from evolving event dynamics, not emotional spikes. For most participants, prediction markets function as information-based competitions, while Memecoins resemble attention-driven lotteries. Rapid Growth with Underlying Structural Fragility Despite rising participation, prediction markets remain structurally fragile. Liquidity on many platforms is still incentive-dependent; some previously spent more than $50,000 per day on market-making subsidies, with depth shrinking once incentives declined. Losing outcomes settling to zero makes it difficult for markets to accumulate lasting depth, and…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
How prediction markets are evolving into core crypto infrastructure and powering the rise of attention assets

How prediction markets are evolving into core crypto infrastructure and powering the rise of attention assets

Prediction Markets Are Moving From Speculation To Programmable Infrastructure, Unlocking Attention Assets And Smarter Risk Signaling.

Author: The Cryptonomist
Connecticut hits Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com over sports event contracts

Connecticut hits Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com over sports event contracts

Connecticut orders Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com to halt sports event contracts, classifying them as illegal online gambling despite firms’ claims of CFTC oversight. Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection has issued cease-and-desist orders to Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, requiring the companies…

Author: Crypto.news
Connecticut Wants Robinhood and Kalshi to Stop Its Prediction Market

Connecticut Wants Robinhood and Kalshi to Stop Its Prediction Market

The post Connecticut Wants Robinhood and Kalshi to Stop Its Prediction Market appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Notes Connecticut believes that Kalshi and other players have violated state gambling laws and pose risks to consumer protection. Prediction markets face growing scrutiny across multiple US states, with New York and Massachusetts also taking action against Kalshi. The prediction market platform defended itself, arguing that it operates under the CFTC’s exclusive federal jurisdiction. The US state of Connecticut has ordered popular predictions market platform Kalshi to halt its operations of offering unlicensed sports betting via event contracts. A similar order has been issued to other market players like Robinhood and Crypto.com. Connecticut Aska Kalshi to Stop Sports Betting via Events Contracts On Dec. 3, the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection sent letters to Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com, while blaming for conducting “unlicensed online gambling, more specifically sports wagering,” via online event contracts. Explaining the State order, DCP Commissioner Bryan Cafferelli said: “None of these entities possess a license to offer wagering in our state, and even if they did, their contracts violate numerous other state laws and policies, including offering wagers to individuals under the age of 21.” DCP Gaming Director Kris Gilman further accused the platforms for using deceptive advertisements to make their services appear legal. He added that these platforms operate outside the state’s regulatory framework and pose significant risks to consumers. Gilman noted that users must realize that these unlicensed platforms come with no protection for their funds or personal information. Not only Connecticut, but prediction markets like Kalshi face the heat from other US states as well. These platforms have come under the scanner after attracting billions of dollars in investment in 2025. Back in late October 2025, New York State also sent a cease and desist order to Kalshi. Similarly, in September, the Massachusetts state attorney general sued the prediction platform in a…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
3 Crypto Narratives Investors Should Watch Ahead of 2026

3 Crypto Narratives Investors Should Watch Ahead of 2026

The post 3 Crypto Narratives Investors Should Watch Ahead of 2026 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Three fast-emerging narratives are surging in December’s crypto outlook, setting the pace for the rest of the year and potentially a new tone for 2026. Web3 spending has hit record highs, Washington is pivoting to robotics, and prediction markets are roaring back, suggesting potential areas of interest for investors. Sponsored Sponsored A Record Month for Crypto Cards Crypto card payments quietly exploded in November, signaling what may be the strongest confirmation yet that Web3 neobanking is becoming a real consumer trend. According to independent researcher Stacy Muur, crypto card volume hit $406 million in November, the highest on record. Rain led with $240 million, followed by RedotPay at $91 million and ether.fi Cash at $36 million. Growth leaders included Rain (+22%), Ready (formerly Argent) (+58%), and Ether.fi (+9%). Meanwhile, MetaMask fell 30%, signaling a shift in user preferences toward newer, more utility-focused card products. Data dashboards platform paymentscan confirmed the momentum, reporting the first-ever $5 million single-day volume for crypto cards alongside rising user activity. Crypto Cards Daily Volumes. Source: PaymentScan.xyz The surge validates a growing market theme that Web3 neobanking is gaining real traction. It aligns with a recent BeInCrypto report, which showed low-cap neobank tokens, including AVICI, CYPR, and MACHINES, are drawing analyst attention for their blend of real-world spending, self-custody, and yield-bearing crypto accounts. Sponsored Sponsored These early-stage altcoins may be undervalued in relation to their usage growth across the sector. Robotics x Crypto: Washington Lights a Fuse A second narrative accelerated this week as the Trump administration shifted its technology focus from AI to robotics. Politico reported that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is “all in” on expanding the US robotics sector, following high-level meetings with robotics CEOs. TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SHIFTS FOCUS TO ROBOTICS Politico reports that after its AI push, the Trump administration is now turning…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Connecticut Issues Cease and Desists to Major Prediction Platforms

Connecticut Issues Cease and Desists to Major Prediction Platforms

The post Connecticut Issues Cease and Desists to Major Prediction Platforms appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Kalshi immediately pushed back by arguing that its markets fall under exclusive CFTC oversight. The crackdown now adds to a growing wave of state-level legal actions across the country. At the same time, Fanatics is pushing forward with a major entry into the prediction market space through a new Crypto.com-powered platform, Fanatics Markets. Despite the rising regulatory pressure, investor interest and corporate expansion suggest the prediction market sector is accelerating rather than slowing down. Connecticut Slams Prediction Markets Connecticut escalated its crackdown on prediction markets by issuing cease-and-desist orders to Robinhood, Kalshi and Crypto.com, accusing all three platforms of facilitating unlicensed sports betting through their event-contract offerings. The state’s Department of Consumer Protection (DCP) said on Wednesday that the companies were effectively conducting online gambling without authorization and offering wagers that violate several state laws, including the prohibition on betting by individuals under 21. DCP Commissioner Bryan Cafferelli said none of the targeted platforms hold the required sports wagering license in Connecticut and argued that their event-contract markets go far beyond what state law permits. Regulators also criticized the firms for allegedly presenting their services as legal when they are not.  DCP Gaming Director Kris Gilman said the platforms operate outside the state’s regulatory safeguards, which exposes users to risks ranging from loss of funds to the misuse of personal data. According to the agency, unlicensed prediction markets also lack proper integrity controls, opening the door to insider betting, manipulation, and wagers on events where outcomes may already be known. Kalshi pushed back immediately by arguing that Connecticut has no authority to regulate its markets at all. A spokesperson said that Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange that is supervised exclusively by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, placing it under federal rather than state jurisdiction. In a lawsuit that was…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Larry Fink, Brian Armstrong and Crypto’s next act

Larry Fink, Brian Armstrong and Crypto’s next act

The post Larry Fink, Brian Armstrong and Crypto’s next act appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Brian Armstrong and Larry Fink debate Bitcoin, tokenization, regulation and AI, sketching a crypto‑infused, tech‑driven future for global finance. Summary Fink recasts Bitcoin as “an asset of fear” and a long‑term hedge, while Armstrong dismisses the Buffett‑Munger “zero” thesis.​ Both see 2025 as a regulatory turning point, with U.S. law shifting crypto from gray zone to “well‑lit establishment” amid heavy industry lobbying.​ Tokenization and stablecoins, they argue, will strip out friction, reshape banks’ business models and determine whether the U.S. can keep pace with India and Brazil. Brian Armstrong and Larry Fink use the DealBook Summit stage to sketch a future where Bitcoin, stablecoins, and tokenization sit inside—rather than outside—the global financial system, even as they disagree on whether crypto is ultimately driven by hope or fear. ​The two joined DealBook Summit host Andrew Sorokin on stage on Dec. 3 to discuss how the landscape of crypto is changing, and what to expect from institutions and regulators in 2026. Old skeptic, new Bitcoin evangelist Larry Fink begins by owning his U‑turn: the man who once called Bitcoin “an index of money laundering and thieves” now oversees the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF at BlackRock. He says the shift came during Covid, after he “tested” his own views by meeting advocates and separating Bitcoin from the broader “crypto” label, concluding there is now “a big large use case for Bitcoin” as a long‑term asset. Today, he frames Bitcoin as “an asset of fear,” bought by people worried about physical or financial security and the long‑run debasement of money through deficits. Brian Armstrong rejects the Buffett–Munger line that Bitcoin (BTC) will still go to zero, arguing “there’s no chance…that’s going to happen at this point.” He casts the Berkshire duo as products of a dollar‑dominated era who “grew up in an environment…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
From “rat poison” to hedge: Larry Fink, Brian Armstrong and Crypto’s next act

From “rat poison” to hedge: Larry Fink, Brian Armstrong and Crypto’s next act

Brian Armstrong and Larry Fink debate Bitcoin, tokenization, regulation and AI, sketching a crypto‑infused, tech‑driven future for global finance. Brian Armstrong and Larry Fink use the DealBook Summit stage to sketch a future where Bitcoin, stablecoins, and tokenization sit inside—rather…

Author: Crypto.news
HTX Research Releases New Report on Prediction Markets: From Structural Constraints to the Future of Attention-Based Financial Infrastructure

HTX Research Releases New Report on Prediction Markets: From Structural Constraints to the Future of Attention-Based Financial Infrastructure

Panama City – Blockman PR – December 4, 2025—HTX Research, the dedicated research arm of leading global crypto exchange HTX, has released its latest report, Prediction Markets: From Structural Bottlenecks to Infrastructure Revolution and the Future of Attention Assets, offering a structured analysis of the foundations, development trajectory, and long-term potential of prediction markets. The […] The post HTX Research Releases New Report on Prediction Markets: From Structural Constraints to the Future of Attention-Based Financial Infrastructure appeared first on TechBullion.

Author: Techbullion
New front runner for Fed chair is pro-crypto – violent dollar collapse needed for Bitcoin to rally

New front runner for Fed chair is pro-crypto – violent dollar collapse needed for Bitcoin to rally

Bitcoin’s recent rebound came as traders raised the probability of a December Federal Reserve rate cut, the dollar eased, and attention turned to who will lead the central bank after Jerome Powell’s term ends in 2026. Futures markets moved the odds of a 25-basis-point cut this month into the mid-to-high 80% range, a shift that […] The post New front runner for Fed chair is pro-crypto – violent dollar collapse needed for Bitcoin to rally appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Author: CryptoSlate