JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre says Iran’s economic collapse is closer than ever, but the regime fall by April 30 market has moved to 0.5% YES, down from 1% yesterday.
Eyre’s comments have driven interest in the May 31 market, currently at 3.6% YES. The spread between April 30 and May 31 suggests traders price a higher chance of regime collapse beyond the immediate window. The Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 market also moved up to 6.5% YES.
The April 30 regime fall market has $9,300 in actual USDC volume, and it would take $34,065 to shift odds by 5 points. The May 31 market is more liquid at $27,933 in actual USDC, requiring only $11,119 for the same shift. The largest 24-hour price movement was a slight uptick in the Pahlavi return market, which remains a long shot.
Eyre’s comments come from a tier-3 source, which limits their weight. His analogy of a wounded state running on adrenaline is stark, but the regime has survived past economic crises. A YES share for regime fall by April 30 trades at 0.5¢, offering a 200x return, a bet on severe destabilization within a week.
Watch for moves by Mojtaba Khamenei and any major defections reported by credible sources. Either would sharply reprice these markets.
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Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/iran-regime-collapse-seen-as-unlikely-by-april-30-despite-economic-woes/
