Bitcoin Price Today: BTC Price Crashes Below $77K, But Four On‑Chain Signals Say Supply Tightens

Bitcoin price didn’t have a great week. The crucial $80K level gave way a few days ago, and another 1.5% drop pushed BTC to around $77,000 at press time. Not something BTC holders and enthusiasts will be happy about. Let’s dig into the latest Bitcoin news to see what’s happening.

Bitcoin is now testing a critical technical confluence at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $77,219.93. The immediate catalyst remains the direction of ETF flows, with the market also closely watching how the progressing CLARITY Act affects sentiment.

The structure is fragile. If price reclaims and holds above $78,000, it could stabilize. A daily close below $77,219 risks a deeper correction toward the next major support at $75,705 (78.6% Fib).

Binance Research: Four On-Chain Signals Point to Tightening Supply

Binance Research just released a detailed chart analysis identifying four distinct on-chain signals that all point to the same conclusion: available supply is tightening and sell-side pressure is being exhausted.

Signal 1: Long-term dormancy
Nearly 60% of all Bitcoin supply hasn’t moved in over a year. Back in 2012, that figure was only 27%. The dormancy rate peaked at 69.5% around the spot Bitcoin ETF approval in January 2024 and has since stayed close to historical highs. Put simply, a majority of holders have no intention of selling at current levels.

Signal 2: SLRV ratio in historic bottom territory
The short-term to long-term holder value ratio is deeply entrenched in historical bottom territory. This indicates a complete lack of market sentiment. Long-term holders now dominate the supply while short-term speculators have largely exited. Historically, every cycle bottom has been accompanied by this ratio falling into this same region.

Signal 3: Exchange balances keep falling
Since peaking at 17.6% during the COVID-era panic, exchange balances have dropped to just 15%. That means roughly 500,000 BTC have permanently left exchanges in recent years. Available seller supply is now at a six-year low.

Signal 4: STH MVRV rebounds above 1.0
Since November 2024, Bitcoin’s short-term holder MVRV has mostly remained below 1, meaning most recent buyers were holding at a loss. Now that ratio has finally moved back above 1.0. Short-term holders are beginning to re-accumulate unrealized gains, but profit accumulation is still in its early stages, which means a new wave of selling pressure is unlikely to emerge immediately. Historically, this pattern often appears before a sustained recovery.

Bitcoin ETF Flows: The Six-Week Inflow Streak Ends

From May 11 to May 15 (ET), spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $1.039 billion, ending six consecutive weeks of net inflows. Ethereum spot ETFs followed with a $255 million outflow.

However, not all crypto ETFs suffered. Spot SOL ETFs posted a net inflow of $58.12 million, and spot XRP ETFs recorded a net inflow of $60.50 million. Altcoin-focused funds are still getting fresh money even as Bitcoin and Ethereum see outflows.

MicroStrategy May Have Bought Another 15,000+ BTC

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor posted “Big Dot Energy” on social media on Sunday, a move widely interpreted as signaling another large-scale Bitcoin purchase. An official SEC filing expected on May 19, 2026 is anticipated to confirm the buy.

Independent tracker Strc.live estimates the firm funneled roughly 15,466 BTC into purchases across four active trading days, after STRC preferred share volume hit an all-time record of 15.1 million shares on Thursday. The community reads this as fresh proceeds being deployed into Bitcoin.

Japan’s SBI and Rakuten Prepare Crypto Investment Trusts

Major Japanese securities firms SBI Securities and Rakuten Securities are preparing to launch investment trust products tied to Bitcoin and Ethereum. These products would allow investment via existing securities accounts, significantly lowering the barrier for mainstream retail participation in Japan.

SBI plans to distribute funds built by group company SBI Global Asset Management, with the lineup spanning both ETFs and investment trusts tied to liquid assets such as Bitcoin and Ether. Rakuten Securities is taking a similar in-house approach through Rakuten Investment Management, with the products designed to trade directly via its smartphone app.

Japan’s Financial Services Agency is moving to revise the enforcement order of the Investment Trust Act by 2028, which would formally add cryptocurrencies to the list of specified assets that investment trusts can hold. A separate bill passed in April 2026 reclassifies crypto under Japan’s Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, effectively bringing it under the same securities regime as stocks and bonds. Tokyo Stock Exchange Chief Executive Hiromi Yamaji has stated that the exchange could list crypto ETFs as early as 2027 if legal reforms are finalized.

Related Bitcoin news: ChatGPT Predicts the Price of Bitcoin if the CLARITY Act Passing Ends Up as a “Sell the News” Event

Bitcoin Price Prediction Today (May 18):

Bullish scenario
Bitcoin reclaims and holds above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of $77,220 by daily close. Buyers step in at this key support. A move back above $78,000 would stabilize the structure and target $80,000 next. The MicroStrategy 8-K filing on May 19, if positive, could act as a catalyst.

Bearish scenario
Bitcoin Price breaks below $77,219 with volume. The next major support sits at the 78.6% Fib level of $75,705. ETF outflows continue and macro pressure from rising yields and oil prices pushes BTC lower. A weekly close below $75,700 would open the door to $73,000.

Likely scenario
Range trading between $76,500 and $78,500 for the next 24-48 hours. The macro headwinds (oil above $110, 10-year yield at 4.52%) are real, but on-chain supply signals show that sellers have limited ammunition. MicroStrategy’s expected filing could provide a bounce later this week. Bitcoin price will likely chop sideways until the next catalyst emerges.

Overall, Bitcoin sits at a critical support confluence at the $77,219 Fibonacci level. ETF outflows ended a six-week streak, but on-chain data from Binance Research shows tightening supply and exhausted sell pressure. MicroStrategy may have bought another 15,000+ BTC last week, and Japan’s largest brokerages are preparing crypto investment trusts. The structure is fragile, but long-term signals remain constructive. The next 24-48 hours will tell if $77K holds or breaks.

FAQs

Why is Bitcoin down today

Surging oil prices above $110 per barrel and rising U.S. Treasury yields (10-year yield hit 4.52%) weakened appetite for risk assets. Investors cut exposure to speculative assets amid fears of higher energy prices fueling global inflation and keeping rates elevated for longer.

Are the Bitcoin ETF outflows a cause for concern

The $1.04 billion outflow ended a six-week inflow streak, which is negative short-term. However, analysts say ETF outflows are a near-term drag rather than proof of a longer-term reversal. If Bitcoin holds $77K, the outflows will generate short-term volatility, not a trend reversal.

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000

It is definitely possible. Major firms like Bernstein and Standard Chartered are targeting $150,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2026, driven by institutional ETF adoption and a structural supply squeeze

, however, prediction markets are far less optimistic, pricing the odds of such a rally at roughly 10-20%.