AeroVironment (AVAV) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Q4 Earnings Today

TLDR

• AeroVironment reports Q4 FY2026 earnings after market close today, June 29
• Analysts expect EPS of $1.48 on revenue of $557–$559 million, a sharp rebound from Q3
• Three analyst firms cut price targets on June 26, though the mean target of $285.99 still implies over 100% upside
• The SCAR contract termination ($1.7B) and an $89M goodwill restatement remain key overhangs
• AVAV is trading near its 52-week low of $135.20, down from a high of $417.86

After Q3 missed Wall Street forecasts by double digits, AeroVironment faces a critical test today when it reports Q4 FY2026 results after the market closes on June 29, 2026.

AeroVironment, Inc., AVAV

Analysts are expecting a strong sequential bounce-back: consensus EPS of $1.48 on revenue of around $557–$559 million. That compares to $0.64 EPS and $408 million in revenue in Q3 — a quarter the company would probably like to forget.

The stock was trading around $137.95 ahead of results, not far from its 52-week low of $135.20. The 52-week high sits at $417.86, which tells you how far AVAV has fallen in the past year.

Historically, AeroVironment has beat revenue estimates 75% of the time, but has beaten EPS estimates only 38% of the time over the past two years. No upward revisions have been made to either EPS or revenue estimates recently.

Three analyst firms cut their price targets on June 26. Piper Sandler lowered its target to $248 from $290, KeyBanc went to $220 from $295, and Clear Street moved to $247 from $293. All three still remain bullish in their ratings, but the cuts reflect growing caution ahead of the print.

Despite the cuts, the mean price target across 18 analysts sits at $285.99 — implying roughly 107% upside from current levels. That’s a wide gap between where analysts think the stock should be and where it’s actually trading.

The SCAR Contract and Accounting Issues

The biggest story hanging over today’s earnings is the loss of the SCAR Badger contract. The U.S. Space Force terminated the estimated $1.7 billion deal to build antennas for its Satellite Communications Augmentation Resource program. Executives confirmed the termination in March after unsuccessful renegotiations.

On top of that, AeroVironment disclosed an $89 million goodwill impairment restatement tied to its space unit. Multiple securities fraud class action lawsuits have since been filed against the company.

Piper Sandler put it plainly: the company faces “a difficult task ahead in setting FY27 expectations and rightsizing investment priorities” after the SCAR loss.

What Investors Want to Hear

FY2027 guidance is the headline item. Analysts expect margins to come under pressure as product mix shifts and the company continues investing in capacity. The question is whether management sets expectations low enough to actually beat them going forward.

Clear Street flagged “a slower contract award cadence” as a concern. Investors will want to see how well AeroVironment is converting its existing backlog into revenue.

Updates on the BlueHalo commercialization effort and programs like Titan and LOCUST are also on the watch list.

An investor day is scheduled for July 8, which should offer more detail on the company’s forward strategy.

On the operational side, AeroVironment has been active — expanding facilities in Dayton and Huntsville, adding William J. Lynn III to the board, and launching the TOM 50 RE uncrewed ground vehicle.

The company carries a GF Score of 82/100, with growth ranked 9/10. Financial strength is weaker at 6/10. Insider activity over the past three months showed net selling of approximately $0.1 million.