Bitcoin Price Risks Crashing to $70k if This Support Fails, Analyst Predicts

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin price trades above $85,000 higher low on December 2, 2025 – so far holding
• On-chain URPD reveals a dangerous support vacuum from $83,300 down to $66,900
• Break below $83,300 could trigger a swift slide toward $70,000 or lower
• One whale alone stacked $226M+ in BTC over the last six days
• Bull case: reclaim $88,000 and target $92,000+; bear case: $70k retest on the table

Bitcoin price dipped to $85,000 on December 2, 2025, forming a higher low that analysts view as tentative support, but a break below $83,300 could accelerate declines toward $66,900 or even $70,000, erasing recent gains amid persistent volatility.

Analyst Ali Martinez (@ali_charts) warned in a December 2 X post, sharing a Glassnode UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) chart partitioned by all-time high (ATH) holders, which shows scant on-chain support between $83,300 and $66,900, levels where 19% of supply last moved at $70,000 and 49% at $53,000.

This bearish signal comes as Bitcoin trades 32% off its $126,300 October peak, with ETF outflows totaling $3.8 billion in November per SoSoValue data on December 1, pressuring the crypto market cap to $3.1 trillion.

Yet whale accumulation persists, offering counterbalance: A single entity scooped $226 million in BTC over six days ending December 2, per @TedPillows.

For traders, the setup demands caution—reclaim $88,000 for bulls, or face a retest of November lows at $82,000.

Key Support Levels Shaping Bitcoin Price Outlook

Bitcoin price has oscillated in a $82,000–$88,000 range since late November, with December’s open at $91,500 quickly fading to test $85,000.

Ali Martinez’s URPD analysis, posted at 9:08 a.m. GMT on December 2, partitions UTXOs by ATH: Old coins (pre-2021) cluster at $19,000–$30,000, while 2024–2025 holders dominate $53,000–$70,000.

“Below $83,300, Bitcoin has very little support until $66,900,” Martinez wrote, highlighting a $16,400 vacuum where a minimal realized cap exists.

Glassnode data, embedded in the chart, confirms: Only 9% of supply realized between $70,000–$83,300, versus 45% above $100,000.

This gap echoes historical drops. During the May 2022 correction, Bitcoin USD breached similar URPD voids, falling 40% in weeks.

Current RSI at 42 on the daily chart signals oversold conditions, per TradingView metrics on December 2, but MACD divergence hints at weakening momentum.

Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL), in a post viewed 10,838 times, countered with optimism: “#Bitcoin made a higher low – $85,000 confirmed as support.”

He noted monthly and weekly highs hit in the first minute of December, a pattern preceding rallies in 2017 and 2021, per historical backtests from CryptoQuant’s December 1 report.

Ted Pillows (@TedPillows) added layers in two posts. He flagged Bitcoin in “no zone,” needing $88,000 reclamation or risking November’s $82,000 low.

Later, he spotlighted whale conviction: “A whale has bought $226,000,000 in $BTC in the past 6 days,” tracking transfers to a wallet inactive since 2023.

This aligns with Santiment’s December 1 data: Whales (1,000+ BTC) added 18,000 coins during the dip, offsetting $1.2 billion in retail sales.

On-Chain Signals Amid Bitcoin Price Choppiness

BTC price action reflects fractured sentiment. The $85,000 higher low, as Jelle highlighted, bounced off the 200-day EMA, a level holding 85% of tests since 2023 per Glassnode’s December 1 update.

Yet volume lags: Spot trading hit $45 billion on December 2, down 20% from November averages, per CoinMarketCap.

Futures open interest dipped to $28 billion, signaling reduced leverage after $2.1 billion in liquidations during the November 11 “1011 crash.”

Bitcoin whale moves provide ballast. Ted’s tracked wallet, starting with 1,200 BTC on November 26, accumulated via OTC desks, avoiding slippage, a tactic seen in 2024’s pre-halving buys.

Broader metrics support: Realized cap at $520 billion indicates HODLing, with 74% of supply unmoved in 12 months, up from 70% in October, per Glassnode.

However, MVRV Z-Score at 1.8, below the 2.0 bull threshold, suggests undervaluation but room for pain if $83,300 cracks.

Replies to these posts reveal Bitcoin trader divides. Martinez’s post drew skepticism, “Are you ever right Ali?” from @truthforvic.

Jelle’s 39 replies leaned bullish, like @newfinance24’s “Reclaim 92k and everyone is bullish again.” Ted’s whale alert sparked 138 replies, including @MoonboyAnalyst’s:

“When a single wallet absorbs $226M in six days, it tells you smart money still sees upside while the crowd panics.”

Macro overlays add context. The Fed’s QT halt on December 1 injected liquidity, but PCE data due December 5 could sway sentiment; economists eye 2.8% inflation, per Bloomberg’s December 1 preview.

BTC ETF flows turned positive on December 1 with $150 million inflows, reversing November’s $3.8 billion bleed, Farside Investors reported December 2.

Upside Push or Deeper Correction?

A $88,000 break targets $92,000 for Bitcoin USD price, aligning with Jelle’s “red Monday, green week” call, a setup that delivered 15% weekly gains post-similar wicks in prior cycles.

Ted’s “no zone” thesis holds: Failure here eyes $82,000, then URPD’s $70,000 cluster, where 2024 buyers average $68,500 per Glassnode.

Risks tilt downward short term. Open interest rebuilds at $85,000, per the December 2 heatmap, inviting shorts if support slips.

Yet whale interest, up 12% in large transfers since November, mirrors 2023’s capitulation bottom, preceding a 150% rally.

Bitcoin price (BTC) now pivots on conviction. As Martinez’s chart warns of voids below, and whales load quietly, December’s first days test resolves.

Historical URPD breaches averaged 25% drops, but quick rebounds followed 60% of cases with whale inflows.