Standard Chartered Halves Bitcoin 2025 Forecast to $100,000 on Demand Concerns

• Revised Forecast: Standard Chartered now predicts Bitcoin at $100,000 by end-2025, down from $200,000.

• Key Factors: Slowing institutional ETF inflows and paused corporate treasury accumulations are primary drivers of the adjustment.

• Market Data: Quarterly ETF inflows have dropped to 50,000 BTC, the lowest since launch, compared to 450,000 BTC in late 2024.

Discover Standard Chartered’s updated Bitcoin prediction for 2025 and what it means for crypto investors amid market slowdowns. Stay informed on BTC trends—read now for expert insights.

What is Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin Prediction for 2025?

Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin prediction for 2025 now stands at $100,000 by year-end, a significant reduction from the previous $200,000 target. This revision stems from a reassessment of demand drivers, including decelerating ETF inflows and exhausted corporate treasury purchases that fueled 2024’s rally. The bank’s analysts emphasize a more cautious approach, projecting slower growth as Bitcoin trades around $90,000 without strong immediate catalysts.

How Are ETF Inflows Impacting Bitcoin’s Price Outlook?

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, launched with high expectations, have seen inflows slow dramatically, influencing Standard Chartered’s revised forecast. Quarterly inflows now hover at approximately 50,000 BTC, marking the weakest period since their U.S. debut. This is a sharp decline from the nearly 450,000 BTC absorbed per quarter by ETFs and corporate treasuries in late 2024, according to data from on-chain analytics platforms like Glassnode and Chainalysis.

Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, noted in a recent report that “the initial surge in institutional adoption has tapered, with ETF net purchases falling short of projections by over 70% in recent months.” This slowdown removes a key pillar of support, forcing a recalibration of price models. Experts from Bloomberg Intelligence echo this, highlighting that sustained demand was predicated on broader retail and institutional participation, which has not materialized as anticipated.

Supporting statistics from the bank’s analysis reveal that ETF assets under management grew by only 15% in the first half of 2025, compared to 50% in the same period of 2024. Short sentences underscore the shift: Demand engines are cooling. Price momentum relies heavily on renewed ETF buying. Without it, upside potential diminishes. Kendrick’s team projects that future appreciation will depend almost entirely on these vehicles, as other sources like retail speculation remain subdued amid economic uncertainties.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Factors Led to Standard Chartered’s Downward Revision of Bitcoin’s 2025 Price Target?

Standard Chartered cut its Bitcoin price target to $100,000 for 2025 due to two main issues: exhausted corporate treasury buying, led by firms like MicroStrategy, and sharply reduced ETF inflows. These factors, once key demand drivers, have weakened, prompting a more conservative outlook based on current market data and analyst assessments.

Will Bitcoin Still Reach New Highs After the 2024 Halving?

Yes, Bitcoin is expected to break its all-time high of $126,000 in the first half of 2026, according to Standard Chartered, but the traditional halving cycle no longer drives prices as strongly. With ETF buying now dominant, the market has matured beyond boom-and-bust patterns, leading to more stable, ETF-led growth that sounds steady when spoken aloud.

Key Takeaways

• Revised Short-Term Target: Standard Chartered’s new $100,000 Bitcoin prediction for 2025 highlights caution amid slowing demand, urging investors to monitor ETF trends closely.
• Shift in Demand Drivers: Corporate buying has plateaued, leaving ETF inflows as the primary force; recent data shows a 70% drop in quarterly volumes, per on-chain metrics.
• Evolving Market Cycles: The classic halving model is outdated—focus on institutional adoption for future gains, with a potential all-time high break in H1 2026.

Conclusion

Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin prediction revision to $100,000 by end-2025, alongside delayed long-term targets to 2030, underscores a maturing crypto market influenced by ETF inflows and policy shifts. While short-term caution prevails with BTC near $90,000, analysts like Geoffrey Kendrick and Matthew Sigel from the bank affirm that structural changes, such as ETF dominance, signal reduced volatility and sustained growth potential. Investors should track Federal Reserve guidance and institutional flows closely—position yourself for the next phase of adoption today.