The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 86.7%.

Perpetual futures open interest for Bitcoin increased from 304,000 BTC to 310,000 BTC on Monday as the cryptocurrency's price briefly touched $90,000, signaling renewed interest in leveraged long positions ahead of year-end trading according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. This 2% increase in open interest accompanying price appreciation suggests fresh capital entering leveraged positions rather than mere price-driven expansion, potentially contradicting earlier narratives about muted year-end activity while raising questions about whether building leverage creates vulnerability for the exact Q1 2026 crash scenarios that Anthony Pompliano suggested Bitcoin might avoid.

Palmer Luckey has raised $350 million for Erebor, valuing the digital bank at approximately $4.3 billion as it moves toward launch with FDIC approval, according to Axios. The Oculus founder and defense tech entrepreneur's entry into fintech represents remarkable valuation for pre-launch bank and raises questions about whether investors are backing genuinely innovative banking model or simply betting on Luckey's track record of building billion-dollar companies, while the timing amid regional banking stress and cryptocurrency integration ambitions creates both opportunity and scrutiny.

Bitcoin is declining as a record $28 billion Boxing Day options expiry becomes a key volatility driver, with analysts highlighting the massive December 26th contract settlement as critical factor influencing near-term price action. This extraordinary options expiry volume—representing approximately 280,000 BTC at current prices around $100,000—creates mechanical market dynamics where positioning, max pain levels, and dealer hedging flows can override fundamental factors, potentially explaining recent price weakness and raising questions about whether post-expiry relief or continued volatility awaits cryptocurrency markets.