Tesla Analysts Forecast Q4 Delivery Decline, Battery Supplier Contract Slashed 99%

• Tesla on track for second consecutive year of declining sales, with full-year deliveries projected at 1.6 million vehicles, an 8% drop.

• Production retooling for redesigned Model Y contributed to early-year sales slowdown.

• L&F Co. battery supply contract with Tesla slashed 99% to $2.67 billion equivalent due to Cybertruck delays and market shifts.

Tesla Q4 delivery estimates signal sales decline amid production challenges and subsidy changes. Explore analyst forecasts, supplier issues, and stock performance in this analysis. Stay informed on EV market trends.

What are Tesla’s Q4 2024 delivery predictions?

Tesla Q4 delivery predictions from analysts average 422,850 vehicles for October to December 2024, representing a 15% decrease compared to the prior year. Tesla’s investor relations page now publicly displays this consensus estimate for the first time. Bloomberg tracks a slightly higher figure at 445,061 units, still down 10% year-over-year.

Why is Tesla expecting a second year of declining sales?

Tesla faces a projected full-year delivery total of 1.6 million vehicles in 2024, an over 8% reduction from 2023. Early disruptions arose from production shutdowns at key plants to retool lines for the redesigned Model Y, Tesla’s top-selling model. CEO Elon Musk’s political engagements added to market distractions during this period. The third quarter provided a temporary boost, with record deliveries driven by U.S. consumers securing electric vehicles ahead of the $7,500 federal tax credit expiration at the end of September. Entering Q4 without these incentives, Tesla introduced base Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan variants priced under $40,000 to sustain demand. Despite delivery declines, Tesla shares have risen 14% year-to-date through recent trading, lagging the S&P 500’s 17% gain, according to market data.

Frequently Asked Questions

What caused the massive reduction in Tesla’s battery contract with L&F Co.?

The original 3.83 trillion won ($2.67 billion) contract with South Korean supplier L&F Co. dropped 99% to 9.73 million won due to reduced supply quantities. Key factors include repeated Cybertruck launch delays, stronger demand for Model 3 and Model Y, and the phase-out of Inflation Reduction Act subsidies. L&F attributed the change to global EV market shifts and battery supply dynamics.

How has L&F Co. responded to the Tesla contract revision?

L&F Co. stated the contract adjustment was unavoidable given evolving global EV market conditions and battery supply chain changes. Shipments of their main high-nickel products remain unaffected, with ongoing deliveries to major Korean battery manufacturers like LG Energy Solution. L&F’s stock fell 11% on the announcement day but is up 16% for the year, underperforming the Kospi Index’s 76% rise.

Key Takeaways

• Declining Q4 Deliveries: Analyst consensus at 422,850 units, 15% below last year, highlighting ongoing demand pressures.
• Full-Year Sales Drop: 1.6 million vehicles expected, impacted by production retooling and subsidy losses.
• Supply Chain Strain: 99% cut in L&F battery deal underscores Cybertruck delays and Model 3/Y preferences.

Conclusion

Tesla’s Q4 delivery predictions and slashed battery supply contract with L&F Co. reflect broader challenges in the EV sector, including production shifts and incentive changes. Tesla investor relations’ transparency on analyst estimates provides clearer visibility into these trends. As the company navigates Q4 hurdles, monitoring stock resilience and strategic pricing moves will be crucial, with potential recovery tied to new model ramps in 2025.