Uniswap (UNI) price today: bearish pressure, but the support at $4.60–$4.80 is still holding

In a still fragile market context, the Uniswap (UNI) price remains under pressure today, but the technical area of $4.60–$4.80 continues to play a decisive role in the short term.

Underlying Trend on D1: Structural Downtrend, Rebound Still Fragile

Currently, the Uniswap price (UNI) against USDT hovers around $4.84, in a clearly weak phase on the daily chart but with an attempt at short-term stabilization. The main outlook remains bearish, however, the movement is compressing right on an important technical area: here it will be decided whether to see a base of accumulation or a further leg down.

The dominant force, for now, is that of a downward trend in a slowing phase: the seller pressure is less aggressive, but buyers have yet to demonstrate control. We are in a typical context of a possible “bottom in formation” but not yet confirmed.

Looking at the daily chart, the trend of Uniswap remains bearish:

• UNI Price Today (close D1): $4.84
• EMA 20: $5.29
• EMA 50: $5.63
• EMA 200: $6.66

Interpretation: UNI is trading well below all major averages. This usually indicates that any rebound, as long as it remains below $5.30–$5.60, is more likely to be sold rather than turn into a structural reversal. To discuss a medium-term trend change, at least a stable recovery above the 50-day moving average ($5.63) would be needed, followed by a reconnection towards $6.50–$6.70.

The D1 regime is labeled as bearish: sellers still hold the positional advantage, although the gap between the price and the averages begins to suggest a market already quite “exhausted” on the downside in the short term.

RSI Daily: Weakness, but No Capitulation

• RSI 14 D1: 35.39

Interpretation: the RSI is in a low but not extreme zone. We are below 40, so the momentum remains on the sellers’ side, but there is not yet a classic oversold excess. This scenario supports the idea of an “orderly” bearish trend, without panic, where rebounds may occur but, for now, are opportunities for a breather within a descending trend.

Daily MACD: Bearish Pressure Easing

• MACD line: -0.24
• Signal: -0.18
• Histogram: -0.07

Interpretation: both values are negative, so the underlying signal remains bearish. However, the histogram is slightly below zero, indicating that the downward momentum is weakening. In practice, sellers no longer dominate as they did in strongly directional phases, but buyers have not yet enforced any real reversal.

Bollinger Bands daily: UNI resting on the lower band

• Central band: $5.40
• Upper band: $6.18
• Lower band: $4.63
• Price relative to the bands: $4.84, near the lower end

Interpretation: The UNI price today is moving in the lower part of the channel, just above the lower band ($4.63). This confirms that the market is in a zone of bearish pressure, but the fact that the price is not glued to the lower band leaves the door open for technical rebounds in case of demand influx or short covering.

ATR daily: contained volatility, slow but treacherous movements

• ATR 14 D1: $0.27

Interpretation: an average fluctuation around $0.27 on a daily basis indicates non-explosive volatility. We are not in a panic phase, but rather in a gradual slide where movements may seem small, but accumulated over time “weigh”. This type of context is treacherous because it can encourage premature counter-trend entries without real confirmation.

Daily Pivot Point: $4.80–$4.90 Area as Short-term Center

• Pivot Point (PP): $4.86
• Resistance R1: $4.89
• Support S1: $4.80

Interpretation: the calculated levels narrow the very short-term trading range between $4.80 and $4.89. The price is practically on the pivot ($4.84–$4.86), indicating a precarious balance: it takes little to shift intraday control towards buyers (above $4.89) or trigger a correction (below $4.80).

H1: Weakness on Hold, Tight Micro-Range

Moving to the hourly chart, the price of Uniswap shows an attempt at stabilization.

• Close H1: $4.84
• EMA 20 H1: $4.86
• EMA 50 H1: $4.89
• EMA 200 H1: $5.08

Interpretation: even in the short term, the price remains below all hourly averages, but the distance is minimal compared to the 20 and 50. This usually precedes a phase of compression: the market is preparing to choose a direction after a pause. The H1 regime remains labeled as bearish, however, there is no vertical drop, but rather a low consolidation.

• RSI 14 H1: 45.63

Interpretation: The hourly RSI has returned to the neutral zone, slightly below 50. Sellers are no longer dominating as before, but buyers have yet to take control. It is the classic scenario of a consolidation phase following a bearish push.

• MACD H1: line -0.01, signal -0.01, histogram 0

Interpretation: values are practically flat, indicating a lack of true directionality in the very short term. Here the market is taking a breather and accumulating energy, but the direction of the next move is not yet determined.

• Bollinger H1: average $4.85, upper band $4.89, lower band $4.81

Interpretation: the bands are very tight, with the price near the center. This type of configuration often anticipates a volatility breakout. The breakout side (above $4.89 or below $4.81) will provide the first intraday trading signal.

• ATR 14 H1: $0.04

Interpretation: reduced hourly volatility, typical of a waiting phase. Sudden movements, in these contexts, tend to “weigh” more because they originate from a previous compression.

M15: market on hold, micro-sideways just below the averages

Dropping to the 15-minute timeframe, useful for the Uniswap chart for those engaging in scalping or very tactical entries:

• Close M15: $4.84
• EMA 20 M15: $4.86
• EMA 50 M15: $4.86
• EMA 200 M15: $4.89

Interpretation: price slightly below the “cluster” of averages, all compressed between $4.86 and $4.89. This is the classic micro-range of distribution/accumulation: the market is deciding whether to use this area to reload shorts or, conversely, to build a base for a rebound.

• RSI 14 M15: 42.66

Interpretation: a slight weakness prevails, but there is no sign of excess. This is very consistent with a low consolidation, where buyers intervene only defensively, not yet offensively.

• MACD M15: line 0, signal 0, histogram 0

Interpretation: complete neutrality in the very short term. Here, the chart is not indicating a direction, but merely a pause.

• Bollinger M15: average $4.87, upper band $4.91, lower band $4.83

Interpretation: UNI fluctuates in the lower half of the channel, between $4.83 and $4.87. As long as it remains in this area, the pressure remains slightly against the buyers. A stable close above $4.90–$4.91 would be the first indication that something is changing even on the micro-timeframe.

• ATR 14 M15: $0.02

Interpretation: minimal volatility in the very short term. Intraday breakouts, when they occur, will tend to appear abrupt compared to the current calm.

Macro Context and Sentiment: Extreme Fear, but UNI Holds on DeFi Fundamentals

• Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 24 (Extreme Fear)

Interpretation: the overall market sentiment is one of extreme fear. Historically, these phases are often associated with compressed prices and long-term opportunities, but in the short term, they can still lead to forced sales or local capitulations. For Uniswap, this means that macro pressure is not helpful, and rebounds may be hindered by low risk appetite.

On the DeFi side, however, Uniswap remains very solid in terms of fees:

• Uniswap V3: ~$922M in average daily fees over the past year, +30.8% over 7 days, +30.2% over 30 days
• Uniswap V4: ~351M$ in average daily fees, with a 60.5% growth over 30 days

Interpretation: in terms of actual protocol usage, Uniswap continues to generate volumes and fees, with an improving trend over the past month. However, the UNI token does not yet fully reflect these fundamentals: the market is still pricing in macro fear and regulatory uncertainty more than the operational growth of the DEX.

Bullish Scenario for Uniswap Price: What is Needed to Discuss a Credible Rebound

For those looking at short-term price predictions for Uniswap, the bull scenario is currently secondary, but not to be ruled out. Key points:

• First H1/M15 signal: closures above $4.89–$4.91, meaning above the upper H1 band and the upper M15 band, with a decisive recovery of the short EMAs.
• Confirmation on H1: consolidation above $5.00–5.05 and subsequent attack on the $5.20–5.30 area (20-day EMA).
• Short-term target: a return to the $5.40–$5.60 area, which coincides with the central band of the daily Bollinger and the 50 EMA.

Operational interpretation: as long as UNI remains trapped below $4.90–$5.00, the bullish scenario remains merely hypothetical. However, a breakout with volume in that area could trigger a short squeeze in the short term, fueled by the fact that the market is positioned defensively (Extreme Fear). In that case, rebounds can be swift, but they would still be against a primary trend that remains weak.

Key level that strengthens the bullish scenario: daily closes above $5.30. This would indicate that the market is beginning to absorb the recent phase of weakness.

Bearish Scenario for Uniswap: How Far Can the Decline Extend

The scenario consistent with the current framework remains one of a bearish prevalence, with potential downward extensions if the current support fails.

• Immediate support: daily lower band area and extended S1, in the $4.60–$4.70 zone.
• Intraday weakness signal: decisive break of $4.80 on H1/M15, with selling pressure intensifying and RSI sliding back towards 30 on lower timeframes.
• Extension: in the absence of a strong reaction from buyers, the price could move towards a cluster of potential supports between $4.40 and $4.50, a psychological zone and an area where many traders might look for “bottom catching”.

Operational interpretation: in a scenario of crypto market in Extreme Fear, a break of recent lows can fuel emotional selling. UNI, despite solid DeFi fundamentals, is not immune to these dynamics. Here, the risk is of false breakdowns: breaking below $4.60 with an immediate recovery. Those working with leverage in this context must consider violent spikes and potential sudden squeezes.

Level that partially invalidates the short-term bearish scenario: stable recovery above $5.00–$5.05 on H1 and M15, and especially above $5.30 on D1. As long as these levels remain intact, every bounce should be approached with caution and viewed as a potential “sell the rip”.

How to Interpret the Current Context on UNI: Weak Trend, Risk of Traps in Both Directions

What does all this mean for those looking at Uniswap today and considering entry points?

• The daily trend is bearish, with the price below all EMAs and momentum still favoring the sellers.
• The intraday timeframes (H1, M15) however, show a phase of compression: low volatility, narrow bands, neutral indicators. It’s fertile ground for false breakouts.
• The macro sentiment (Extreme Fear) increases the risk of sudden emotional movements, both downward (panic sell) and upward (short squeeze).

For a trader, this context suggests caution: those seeking aggressive long entries are attempting to anticipate a possible “bottom,” but they are doing so against a still bearish trend. On the other hand, those following the short trend should avoid chasing prices downward within tight micro-ranges, where squeezes can be violent.

In practice, the areas to monitor on the Uniswap chart are:

• $4.60–$4.80: defensive area for buyers. Holding this range can support rebound scenarios.
• $4.90–$5.00: first “front line” for intraday buyers. A break and hold above this area changes the short-term tone.
• $5.30–$5.60: watershed area on the daily (EMA 20 and 50). Only above this level can we discuss a more significant reversal and not just a technical rebound.

The main risk in the upcoming sessions is being lured by premature signals: a single intraday breakout, without multi-timeframe confirmation and without volume, has a high probability of turning into a trap. In such a context, it often pays more to wait for the market to clearly show which direction it wants to go, rather than trying to guess the bottom or the top.

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment solicitation in any way. Trading cryptocurrencies is highly risky and can result in the total loss of capital. Always conduct your own research and, if necessary, consult a licensed professional.