Coinbase Launches Prediction Markets in the U.S., Turning Sports, Politics, and Crypto into Trades

Key Takeaways:

• Coinbase officially introduced the managed prediction markets for U.S. users via Coinbase Financial Markets.
• Traders can buy “Yes” or “No” contracts in various fields such as sports, crypto, politics, economics and entertainment.
• Each contract pays $1 with the right prediction – the price reflects real-time market probability.

Coinbase is expanding beyond spot crypto trading with the launch of its prediction markets product in the United States. The feature allows users to trade outcomes on real-world events, bringing a familiar market-based structure to forecasts once limited to polls or sportsbooks.

Prediction Markets Go Live on Coinbase

Coinbase confirmed that its prediction markets are now available nationwide, offering regulated “Yes/No” contracts tied to specific outcomes. These contracts are listed futures and swaps provided by Coinbase Financial Markets (CFM), a registered NFA member.

A prediction market works on a simple structure. The contracts pay off at $1 in case of an occurrence and $0 in case of non-occurrence. Trade price is simply the opportunity cost which suggests a market. A price of $0.65 therefore indicates that there is an approximate 65% probability of the event occurring.

Customers have the choice of purchasing either “Yes”, when they believe that the outcome will occur, or “No”, when they are betting that it will not. If the position is correct, the contract settles at $1, and the trader keeps the difference between the payout and the purchase price, minus fees.

Markets are available across a wide range of categories, including sports, crypto prices, elections, economic indicators, technology, science, weather, entertainment, and company-related events. Coinbase says new markets will be added regularly.

Read More: Coinbase, Circle Take Bermuda Onchain as Nation Moves Toward First Fully Digital Economy

How Trading, Settlement, and Fees Work

In order to access prediction markets, you will require a regular account at Coinbase and complete onboarding with CFM. That is to pass identity checks and throw in some financial basic information. You can fund trades directly off of your primary Coinbase balance, after you are green-lit and either using USD or USDC.

The cash that you have kept open is transferred into a derivatives account. When positions are closed, unused funds transfer back automatically. Trading is available 24/7, except for a weekly maintenance window from Thursday 3:00–5:00 am ET.

Settlement Rules and Payout Structure

Each market includes detailed rules explaining how outcomes are decided. Settlement relies on a predefined “source of truth,” such as official government data, market prices, or recognized news outlets. The outcome is validated by an autonomous regulated exchange.

In case of settlement, the winning contracts receive credit of $1 and the losers pay $0. In this case, say you purchase 10 “Yes” contracts with an offer price of $0.40 it would then cost you $4. Provided the event proceeds, you earn a dollar in payments of $10 and earn a $6 profit net of fees.

Fees apply to every trade and are shown clearly in the order preview. Coinbase states these fees cover market operations and brokerage costs. Settlement transfers may be delayed during bank holidays, weekends, or while third-party verification is completed.

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