XPL, in a sharp downtrend, has declined to the $0.08 level, remaining below EMA20; although RSI 28 is in the oversold region, MACD is negative and Supertrend is giving a red signal. Short-term rebound buying is possible depending on holding at the critical support $0.0700, but resistance weight dominates in higher timeframes.
Executive Summary
XPL is consolidating at the $0.08 level with a 15.10% drop in the last 24 hours, while the overall technical picture clearly shows a bearish outlook. Supertrend is giving a bearish signal, price remains below EMA20 ($0.11) with RSI at 28.18 in oversold territory; however, high-volume decline and BTC’s parallel weakness are limiting upward movements. If the critical support at $0.0700 breaks, downside momentum could accelerate, while holding could lead to a reaction toward the $0.12 Supertrend resistance. Investors should approach with high risk perception, prioritizing short or wait-and-see strategies over long positions.
Market Structure and Trend Status
Current Trend Analysis
XPL’s current trend direction can be clearly defined as a downtrend. Price is trading significantly below the short-term EMA20 ($0.11) level and has experienced a 15.10% decline from $0.09 to the $0.07 range in the last 24 hours. The Supertrend indicator is in bearish mode, marking $0.12 as resistance. This setup highlights the lack of upward momentum and buyer weakness. In the medium-term outlook, a drop of over 50% from previous highs (around $0.1779) has occurred, with no trend reversal signal.
Structural Levels
In terms of structural levels, a total of 6 strong levels have been identified for XPL across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 1D shows 1 support/0 resistance, 3D shows 1 support/4 resistance, and 1W shows 1 support/1 resistance distribution. This indicates resistance dominance in higher timeframes. The main support at $0.0700 (75/100 score) stands out as the most critical level; this level is ready to be tested as the bottom of the recent downwave. On the upside, EMA20 at $0.11 and Supertrend at $0.12 form structural resistance, while 3D/1W resistance clustering ($0.12-$0.18 range) could suppress upward movements.
Technical Indicators Report
Momentum Indicators
RSI(14) at 28.18 has entered the oversold region (below 30), signaling short-term rebound potential; however, in a bearish trend, these levels often produce fakeouts. MACD histogram is negatively expanding with no crossover above the signal line – confirming momentum continuation in favor of sellers. Supporting indicators like Stochastic and CCI also show oversold readings, but the lack of divergence does not support a trend change. Overall momentum confluence is bearish, though RSI bottom formation should be monitored.
Trend Indicators
EMA clustering is bearish: Price is below EMA20 ($0.11), EMA50 ($0.13 estimated), and EMA200 ($0.15+). Supertrend reinforces its ATR-based bearish signal with $0.12 resistance. Price is below Ichimoku Cloud, with negative Tenkan-Sen crossover. Although Bollinger Bands are contracting indicating reduced volatility, testing continues at the lower band (around $0.075). Trend indicators confluence synthesizes as short-term bearish, medium-term neutral-bearish.
Critical Support and Resistance Analysis
In support analysis, $0.0700 is the strongest level (75/100 score, 1D/3D confluence); below it, $0.0650 psychological and 1W support should be watched. A break of this level opens the door to bearish targets ($0.05 or lower). On the resistance side, no strong level (60+ score), but $0.09 intraday high, $0.11 EMA20, and $0.12 Supertrend are likely first hurdles. 5 resistances in 3D/1W (out of total 6 levels) make upside breakout difficult – Fibonacci 0.618 retracement around $0.10 adds resistance. Pivot points (classic): S1 $0.075, R1 $0.085. Overall confluence: Support test is critical, resistance passage is difficult.
Volume and Market Participation
24-hour volume at $253.44M is at high levels; volume increase despite 15% drop confirms seller participation and lack of accumulation. OBV shows no negative divergence, but volume peaks on down days signal increasing bearish conviction. MFI (Money Flow) is oversold but negative, whale flows differ in spot/futures (futures leverage shorts dominant). Market participation aligns with downside, volume contraction expected for reaction – current high volume elevates continuation risk.
Risk Assessment
In risk/reward framework, bullish target $0.1779 (30 score, low probability), bearish target ~$0.00 (22 score, practically zero base). From $0.08 to $0.0700 stop-loss, long R/R around 1:1.5 (weak), short is 1:3+ superior. Main risks: BTC correlation (80+%), volatility spike, liquidity traps. Position size limited to 1-2% risk; volatility 20+% (24h range 25%). Overall risk high, bearish bias superior – long only on support hold.
Bitcoin Correlation
XPL, as a highly correlated altcoin with BTC ($65k BTC, -8.54% drop), is following the main trend. BTC Supertrend bearish, supports at $62,910/$60k critical; breaks below these levels pressure XPL below $0.07. BTC resistance above $65,881 recovery could test XPL $0.09-$0.11, but rising BTC dominance crushes altcoins. BTC levels to watch: $60k break triggers XPL short, above $71k relief. Correlation caution: Altcoin rally must be BTC-led.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
XPL’s technical picture shows bearish dominance with multi-indicator confluence: Oversold RSI offers reaction potential, but high-volume decline, price below EMA, and high TF resistance prevent trend reversal. Strategic outlook: Short if $0.0700 support fails (target $0.06), scalp long if holds ($0.11 target). Short-term bounce possible if BTC stays above $60k, but overall risk high – wait-and-see primary. For detailed spot analysis, check XPL Spot Analysis, for futures XPL Futures Analysis. This holistic evaluation provides decision-makers with the full market picture.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/xpl-comprehensive-technical-analysis-february-6-2026-detailed-review
