Bitcoin’s Pullback Looks Nothing Like Past Bear Markets

According to a recent CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin’s current correction is breaking from the historical pattern that typically defines full bear markets.

In previous cycles, Bitcoin only formed durable bottoms after short-term holders experienced deep unrealized losses. Data going back to 2014 shows that those losses consistently exceeded 57% before the market stabilized.

The 2014–2015 bear market saw short-term holder losses peak at 83%.
The 2018–2019 cycle reached 62%.
The 2019–2020 drawdown hit 57%.
The 2021–2022 collapse climbed to 71%.

Across those cycles, the average peak loss before a bottom formed was roughly 68%.

This time is different.

Losses Remain Far Below Historical Capitulation Levels

In the current correction, short-term holder losses peaked at just 40%, nearly thirty percentage points below the historical average. Since then, losses have eased toward 31% as price rebounded from a low near $66,928 back above $70,000.

That level of drawdown simply does not match prior bear market conditions.

Equally important, long-term holders remain around 27% in profit, with no clear signs of capitulation. Historically, extended bear markets required broad pain across both short- and long-term participants. That dynamic is not visible right now.

The Timing Also Breaks the Pattern

Past bear markets lasted an average of 378 days. The current pullback is only about 88 days old.

In previous cycles, when short-term holders were deeply underwater, 70% or more, recovery required many months before stability returned. Now, despite losses never exceeding 40%, selling pressure appears to have stabilized relatively quickly.

That combination, shallower losses and faster stabilization, stands out.

Correction or Structural Shift?

The data suggests the market is not behaving like a traditional bear cycle. Participants have not reached the panic thresholds that historically marked capitulation bottoms.

Instead, this pullback looks more like a sharp correction within a broader structure rather than the onset of a prolonged bearish phase.

Whether this reflects structural market maturation, stronger holder conviction, or simply temporary resilience remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the current correction does not resemble the deep capitulation events that defined past bear markets.

And that divergence is hard to ignore.

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