Rory Johnston: US policies are bullish for oil prices

Presidential actions have been ineffective in reducing oil prices. The global oil market is projected to face oversupply in late 2025. Sanctions significantly impact oil availability despite production levels.

Key Takeaways

Presidential actions have been ineffective in reducing oil prices.
The global oil market is projected to face oversupply in late 2025.
Sanctions significantly impact oil availability despite production levels.
US presidential policies have been bullish for oil prices.
Venezuela’s oil production suffers from lack of investment and mismanagement.
Brent crude markets are bullish, while WTI lags.
Venezuelan oil production recovery could take over three years.
Initial production increases in Venezuela can be quick, but long-term growth needs major investments.
Chevron sees potential in Venezuela due to its strategic position and sanction waivers.
Geopolitical factors play a crucial role in shaping oil market dynamics.
Sanctions create a disconnect between oil production and market supply.
The oil market’s future is influenced by political leadership and global economic conditions.
Investment and infrastructure improvements are key to Venezuela’s oil production growth.
The divergence between Brent and WTI prices highlights market complexities.
Understanding geopolitical influences is vital for navigating the energy sector.

Guest intro

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher and founder of Commodity Context, an independent commodity market research platform, where he provides data-driven analysis of global oil markets. He is a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy and a Fellow with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Johnston led commodity economics research at Scotiabank, where he set the bank’s energy price forecasts and advised executives on commodity-exposed sectors.

Presidential influence on oil prices

— Rory Johnston
The oil price might be lower if the president had taken no action.
— Rory Johnston
US presidential policies have been a bullish factor on oil prices.
— Rory Johnston
Prices would be lower if Kamala Harris had won the presidency.
Political leadership significantly influences oil market dynamics.
Understanding the political context is crucial for analyzing oil price trends.

Global oil market outlook for 2025

The global oil market is expected to experience significant oversupply in late 2025.
— Rory Johnston
Supply is projected to outpace demand by 3 million barrels a day.
Geopolitical factors will affect oil prices and market dynamics.
Understanding supply and demand dynamics is essential for market predictions.
Sanctions and political developments will impact future oil availability.
Market conditions are based on current trends and data analysis.
Investors should prepare for potential market shifts in 2025.

Impact of sanctions on oil availability

Sanctions significantly impact the availability of oil in the market.
— Rory Johnston
Sanctions create a disconnect between production and supply.
Understanding sanctions’ effects is key to analyzing market dynamics.
Sanctions influence logistics and market availability of oil.
Political factors shape the oil market landscape.
Sanctions can lead to supply shortages despite high production levels.
Market analysts must consider sanctions in their evaluations.

Challenges in Venezuelan oil production

Venezuela’s oil production suffers from lack of foreign investment and mismanagement.
— Rory Johnston
Domestic mismanagement exacerbates production issues.
Sanctions further complicate Venezuela’s oil industry challenges.
Foreign investment is crucial for revitalizing Venezuela’s oil sector.
Political factors hinder Venezuela’s oil production recovery.
Understanding Venezuela’s challenges is key for global oil market analysis.
Structural issues in Venezuela impact global oil supply dynamics.

Brent vs. WTI crude market trends

Brent crude markets are rising and showing bullish trends.
— Rory Johnston
WTI is lagging behind Brent in market performance.
— Rory Johnston
Market dynamics vary significantly between Brent and WTI.
Investors should monitor both Brent and WTI for market insights.
Understanding pricing dynamics is crucial for market analysis.
Divergence in market trends highlights complexities in crude oil pricing.

Timeline for Venezuelan oil production recovery

Venezuelan oil production recovery could take over three years.
— Rory Johnston
Achieving a million barrels a day could take three to five years.
— Rory Johnston
Political factors influence the timeline for production recovery.
Infrastructure improvements are necessary for long-term growth.
Investors should consider the long-term outlook for Venezuelan oil.
Understanding recovery timelines is critical for market expectations.

Immediate vs. long-term production increases in Venezuela

Initial production increases can be achieved quickly in Venezuela.
— Rory Johnston
Long-term growth requires significant investment and infrastructure improvements.
— Rory Johnston
Investment is crucial for sustaining production growth.
Infrastructure challenges hinder long-term production increases.
Understanding immediate vs. long-term challenges is key for market analysis.
Investors should weigh short-term gains against long-term needs.

Chevron’s strategic position in Venezuela

Chevron sees potential upside in Venezuela due to its longstanding presence.
— Rory Johnston
Recent sanction waivers benefit Chevron’s operations.
— Rory Johnston
Chevron’s strategic position offers advantages in a challenging market.
Understanding Chevron’s history in Venezuela is key for market insights.
Sanction waivers provide opportunities for Chevron’s growth.
Investors should consider Chevron’s potential in the Venezuelan market.

Key Takeaways

Presidential actions have been ineffective in reducing oil prices.
The global oil market is projected to face oversupply in late 2025.
Sanctions significantly impact oil availability despite production levels.
US presidential policies have been bullish for oil prices.
Venezuela’s oil production suffers from lack of investment and mismanagement.
Brent crude markets are bullish, while WTI lags.
Venezuelan oil production recovery could take over three years.
Initial production increases in Venezuela can be quick, but long-term growth needs major investments.
Chevron sees potential in Venezuela due to its strategic position and sanction waivers.
Geopolitical factors play a crucial role in shaping oil market dynamics.
Sanctions create a disconnect between oil production and market supply.
The oil market’s future is influenced by political leadership and global economic conditions.
Investment and infrastructure improvements are key to Venezuela’s oil production growth.
The divergence between Brent and WTI prices highlights market complexities.
Understanding geopolitical influences is vital for navigating the energy sector.

Guest intro

Presidential influence on oil prices

— Rory Johnston
The oil price might be lower if the president had taken no action.
— Rory Johnston
US presidential policies have been a bullish factor on oil prices.
— Rory Johnston
Prices would be lower if Kamala Harris had won the presidency.
Political leadership significantly influences oil market dynamics.
Understanding the political context is crucial for analyzing oil price trends.

Global oil market outlook for 2025

The global oil market is expected to experience significant oversupply in late 2025.
— Rory Johnston
Supply is projected to outpace demand by 3 million barrels a day.
Geopolitical factors will affect oil prices and market dynamics.
Understanding supply and demand dynamics is essential for market predictions.
Sanctions and political developments will impact future oil availability.
Market conditions are based on current trends and data analysis.
Investors should prepare for potential market shifts in 2025.

Impact of sanctions on oil availability

Sanctions significantly impact the availability of oil in the market.
— Rory Johnston
Sanctions create a disconnect between production and supply.
Understanding sanctions’ effects is key to analyzing market dynamics.
Sanctions influence logistics and market availability of oil.
Political factors shape the oil market landscape.
Sanctions can lead to supply shortages despite high production levels.
Market analysts must consider sanctions in their evaluations.

Challenges in Venezuelan oil production

Venezuela’s oil production suffers from lack of foreign investment and mismanagement.
— Rory Johnston
Domestic mismanagement exacerbates production issues.
Sanctions further complicate Venezuela’s oil industry challenges.
Foreign investment is crucial for revitalizing Venezuela’s oil sector.
Political factors hinder Venezuela’s oil production recovery.
Understanding Venezuela’s challenges is key for global oil market analysis.
Structural issues in Venezuela impact global oil supply dynamics.

Brent vs. WTI crude market trends

Brent crude markets are rising and showing bullish trends.
— Rory Johnston
WTI is lagging behind Brent in market performance.
— Rory Johnston
Market dynamics vary significantly between Brent and WTI.
Investors should monitor both Brent and WTI for market insights.
Understanding pricing dynamics is crucial for market analysis.
Divergence in market trends highlights complexities in crude oil pricing.

Timeline for Venezuelan oil production recovery

Venezuelan oil production recovery could take over three years.
— Rory Johnston
Achieving a million barrels a day could take three to five years.
— Rory Johnston
Political factors influence the timeline for production recovery.
Infrastructure improvements are necessary for long-term growth.
Investors should consider the long-term outlook for Venezuelan oil.
Understanding recovery timelines is critical for market expectations.

Immediate vs. long-term production increases in Venezuela

Initial production increases can be achieved quickly in Venezuela.
— Rory Johnston
Long-term growth requires significant investment and infrastructure improvements.
— Rory Johnston
Investment is crucial for sustaining production growth.
Infrastructure challenges hinder long-term production increases.
Understanding immediate vs. long-term challenges is key for market analysis.
Investors should weigh short-term gains against long-term needs.

Chevron’s strategic position in Venezuela

Chevron sees potential upside in Venezuela due to its longstanding presence.
— Rory Johnston
Recent sanction waivers benefit Chevron’s operations.
— Rory Johnston
Chevron’s strategic position offers advantages in a challenging market.
Understanding Chevron’s history in Venezuela is key for market insights.
Sanction waivers provide opportunities for Chevron’s growth.
Investors should consider Chevron’s potential in the Venezuelan market.

Loading more articles…

You’ve reached the end

Add us on Google

`;
}

function createMobileArticle(article) {
const displayDate = getDisplayDate(article);
const editorSlug = article.editor ? article.editor.toLowerCase().replace(/\s+/g, ‘-‘) : ”;
const captionHtml = article.imageCaption ? `

${article.imageCaption}

` : ”;
const authorHtml = article.isPressRelease ? ” : `
`;

return `

${captionHtml}

${article.subheadline ? `

${article.subheadline}

` : ”}

${createSocialShare()}

${authorHtml}
${displayDate}

${article.content}

`;
}

function createDesktopArticle(article, sidebarAdHtml) {
const editorSlug = article.editor ? article.editor.toLowerCase().replace(/\s+/g, ‘-‘) : ”;
const displayDate = getDisplayDate(article);
const captionHtml = article.imageCaption ? `

${article.imageCaption}

` : ”;
const categoriesHtml = article.categories.map((cat, i) => {
const separator = i < article.categories.length – 1 ? ‘|‘ : ”;
return `${cat}${separator}`;
}).join(”);
const desktopAuthorHtml = article.isPressRelease ? ” : `
`;

return `

${categoriesHtml}

${article.subheadline ? `

${article.subheadline}

` : ”}

${desktopAuthorHtml}
${displayDate}
${createSocialShare()}

${captionHtml}

`;
}

function loadMoreArticles() {
if (isLoading || !hasMore) return;

isLoading = true;
loadingText.classList.remove(‘hidden’);

// Build form data for AJAX request
const formData = new FormData();
formData.append(‘action’, ‘cb_lovable_load_more’);
formData.append(‘current_post_id’, lastLoadedPostId);
formData.append(‘primary_cat_id’, primaryCatId);
formData.append(‘before_date’, lastLoadedDate);
formData.append(‘loaded_ids’, loadedPostIds.join(‘,’));

fetch(ajaxUrl, {
method: ‘POST’,
body: formData
})
.then(response => response.json())
.then(data => {
isLoading = false;
loadingText.classList.add(‘hidden’);

if (data.success && data.has_more && data.article) {
const article = data.article;
const sidebarAdHtml = data.sidebar_ad_html || ”;

// Check for duplicates
if (loadedPostIds.includes(article.id)) {
console.log(‘Duplicate article detected, skipping:’, article.id);
// Update pagination vars and try again
lastLoadedDate = article.publishDate;
loadMoreArticles();
return;
}

// Add to mobile container
mobileContainer.insertAdjacentHTML(‘beforeend’, createMobileArticle(article));

// Add to desktop container with fresh ad HTML
desktopContainer.insertAdjacentHTML(‘beforeend’, createDesktopArticle(article, sidebarAdHtml));

// Update tracking variables
loadedPostIds.push(article.id);
lastLoadedPostId = article.id;
lastLoadedDate = article.publishDate;

// Execute any inline scripts in the new content (for ads)
const newArticle = desktopContainer.querySelector(`article[data-article-id=”${article.id}”]`);
if (newArticle) {
const scripts = newArticle.querySelectorAll(‘script’);
scripts.forEach(script => {
const newScript = document.createElement(‘script’);
if (script.src) {
newScript.src = script.src;
} else {
newScript.textContent = script.textContent;
}
document.body.appendChild(newScript);
});
}

// Trigger Ad Inserter if available
if (typeof ai_check_and_insert_block === ‘function’) {
ai_check_and_insert_block();
}

// Trigger Google Publisher Tag refresh if available
if (typeof googletag !== ‘undefined’ && googletag.pubads) {
googletag.cmd.push(function() {
googletag.pubads().refresh();
});
}

} else if (data.success && !data.has_more) {
hasMore = false;
endText.classList.remove(‘hidden’);
} else if (!data.success) {
console.error(‘AJAX error:’, data.error);
hasMore = false;
endText.textContent=”Error loading more articles”;
endText.classList.remove(‘hidden’);
}
})
.catch(error => {
console.error(‘Fetch error:’, error);
isLoading = false;
loadingText.classList.add(‘hidden’);
hasMore = false;
endText.textContent=”Error loading more articles”;
endText.classList.remove(‘hidden’);
});
}

// Set up IntersectionObserver
const observer = new IntersectionObserver(function(entries) {
if (entries[0].isIntersecting) {
loadMoreArticles();
}
}, { threshold: 0.1 });

observer.observe(loadingTrigger);
})();

Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/rory-johnston-us-policies-are-bullish-for-oil-prices-macro-voices/