VanEck’s Matthew Sigel sees $100,000 Bitcoin within a year even as Iran conflict–driven volatility, war risks, and macro uncertainty leave room for another 20% drawdown.

Bitcoin (BTC) can “totally reasonably” trade back at $100,000 within a year, according to VanEck’s head of digital assets Matthew Sigel, who argues the leading cryptocurrency remains a “100% viable asset” despite heavy drawdowns and war‑driven volatility. His comments, made on CNBC’s Power Lunch and amplified on X, come as Bitcoin trades in the high $60,000s after a sharp correction from an October peak near $126,000. Since the Iran conflict escalated in late February, about 20% has already been shaved off Bitcoin’s market value, exposing the fragility of its supposed crisis‑hedge status.

In the viral clip shared by CNBC’s Power Lunch account on X, Sigel calls Bitcoin “a 100% viable asset, depending on when you start the clock,” before adding: “I think a $100,000 Bitcoin again is totally reasonable in one year’s time.” That view extends earlier VanEck research, where Sigel set a base‑case Bitcoin target of $180,000 for this cycle, arguing that institutional inflows, pro‑crypto U.S. policy under President Donald Trump, and repeated all‑time highs would define the post‑election landscape. Bitcoin was recently priced around $68,510, roughly $16,600 below where it traded a year ago and nearly 50% off its October all‑time high near $126,000.

War risk and a potential 20% drawdown

The bullish VanEck call lands against a darker macro backdrop highlighted by macro investor James Lavish in a separate interview shared by Cointelegraph. Lavish warns that if tensions around the Iran conflict escalate, Bitcoin “could fall up to 20%,” a move that would push the price back toward the low‑to‑mid $50,000s and further undercut the narrative of digital gold. Data already show how sensitive the asset has become to Middle East headlines: Bitcoin plunged to about $63,255 in late February on the initial U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran before rebounding above $68,000 on shifting war reports.

Market research cited by outlets such as Seeking Alpha notes that the broader downturn tied to the Iran conflict has erased roughly 20% from Bitcoin’s value since hostilities intensified, while some analysts warn a slide toward $50,000 remains possible before any durable recovery. At the same time, Glassnode data highlighted by Yahoo Finance show “tentative signs of improvement,” with Bitcoin recently up about 4.3% on the day around $69,100 as traders start to re‑risk on hopes for de‑escalation.

Between safe haven and risk asset

The split between Sigel’s $100,000 road map and Lavish’s 20% downside warning captures Bitcoin’s current identity crisis: it trades like a geopolitically sensitive risk asset, not a pure safe haven, even as long‑term bulls continue to frame it as protection against monetary debasement. In previous commentary covered by Forbes, BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes argued that prolonged conflict and renewed money‑printing could ultimately drive Bitcoin toward $500,000, underscoring how war and macro policy, not just halving cycles, now anchor the most aggressive price targets.

For now, spot prices remain well below both the $100,000 threshold flagged by Sigel and the $180,000 base case VanEck has floated for this cycle, but also far above the $52,000 lows seen earlier in the Iran crisis. Whether Bitcoin spends the next year climbing back toward six‑figure territory or retesting the $50,000 area may hinge less on crypto‑native narratives and more on how the Iran war, oil prices, and Federal Reserve policy evolve from here.