UnitedHealth (UNH) Stock Climbs After Government Raises Medicare Advantage Rate to 2.48%

TLDR

• UNH stock rose 1.5% on Monday, trading as high as $283.30 before closing at $281.46.
• The federal government announced a final 2027 Medicare Advantage rate increase of 2.48%, well above January’s surprise proposal of just 0.09%.
• The higher rate means insurers will collect $13 billion in additional government payments next year.
• Raymond James upgraded UNH from “market perform” to “outperform” ahead of Q1 earnings on April 21, setting a $330 price target.
• Humana jumped 11% premarket on the Medicare news; UNH and CVS Health each rose more than 6% before the open.

UNH opened Monday at $277.26 and traded up to $283.30, closing at $281.46 — a gain of 1.5%.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, UNH

The stock has pulled back roughly 22% over the last six months and is trading below both its 50-day moving average of $283.03 and its 200-day average of $319.62. The consensus analyst price target sits at $363.38.

After Monday’s close, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released its final 2027 payment rate for Medicare Advantage plans. The rate came in at a 2.48% average increase — a meaningful jump from the 0.09% proposed back in January, which had rattled the sector.

That January proposal sent UNH and Humana lower when it was released. Wall Street was closely watching for any improvement in the final notice.

The higher rate translates to $13 billion in additional payments to insurers next year. Shares of UNH and CVS Health parent of Aetna surged more than 6% in premarket trading following the announcement. Humana climbed 11%.

Medicare Advantage: The Business That Moves the Needle

Medicare Advantage is the privately run alternative to traditional Medicare and covers around 35 million beneficiaries this year, according to health research group KFF. Enrollment has grown steadily and now exceeds traditional Medicare.

For insurers like UnitedHealth, it is a core revenue driver. A near-zero rate update — when medical costs are rising 7% to 9% annually — had effectively acted as a cut, according to the Better Medicare Alliance.

TD Cowen’s Ryan Langston had expected a more modest bump in the range of 1% to 1.5%, so the final number beat some expectations.

Bipartisan pressure had clouded the rate outlook. Both Republicans and Democrats have raised concerns about insurers collecting higher payments through coded diagnoses — a practice known as risk adjustment. The Biden administration began tightening those rules, and the Trump administration’s January proposal signaled continued scrutiny.

Q1 Earnings on April 21

Raymond James upgraded UNH from “market perform” to “outperform” on April 1, setting a $330 price target. The firm cited potential for management to show stabilization going into earnings.

Barclays has an “overweight” rating with a $327 target. Mizuho and Leerink Partners also rate it “outperform,” with targets of $350 and $345 respectively.

Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 18 have a Buy rating, seven a Hold, and two a Sell. The MarketBeat consensus is Moderate Buy.

Q1 results are due April 21. In Q4, UNH earned $2.11 EPS, beating the consensus estimate of $2.09. Revenue came in at $113.73 billion, up 12.3% year-over-year. The company has guided for FY2026 EPS of $17.75.

UNH also pays a quarterly dividend of $2.21, representing a 3.1% annual yield based on recent prices.

Institutional ownership stands at 87.86%, with recent additions from Norges Bank, Berkshire Hathaway, and T. Rowe Price.

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