ASML Stock Falls 4% on US Bill to Restrict China Chip Tool Sales

TLDR

• US lawmakers introduced the MATCH Act, which would ban exports of DUV lithography machines to China
• ASML stock dropped as much as 4.7% before recovering slightly to -4.1% in Amsterdam trading
• China accounts for around 20% of ASML’s forecast sales in 2026
• JPMorgan analyst estimates the bill could cut ASML’s EPS by up to 10%
• The bill is bipartisan and aims to coordinate export restrictions among US allies

ASML fell sharply on Tuesday after a group of US lawmakers introduced legislation that could cut off one of the company’s last remaining sales channels into China.

ASML Holding N.V., ASML

The bill, known as the MATCH Act — short for Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware Act — was introduced last Thursday by a bipartisan group led by Representative Michael Baumgartner of Washington state.

If passed, it would ban exports of deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines to China, closing a channel that Chinese chipmakers have continued to use under the current export control framework.

ASML has never sold its more advanced EUV machines to China. But DUV tools, used in producing memory chips and components for everyday consumer devices, have remained available under existing Dutch licensing rules. The MATCH Act would end that.

The stock dropped as much as 4.7% in Amsterdam before pulling back to trade around 4.1% lower at €1,114 by mid-morning. In US pre-market trading, the stock sat at $1,286.76, down 1.32%.

Analyst Views Split on Damage

Citi analysts said they “view this prospect negatively,” though they stopped short of detailed financial projections.

JPMorgan analyst Sandeep Deshpande was more specific, estimating that ASML’s earnings per share could fall by up to 10% if the restrictions are enacted. He added that sales to other regions would increase, but likely not enough to make up for lost Chinese revenue.

Analyst Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam took a more measured view, estimating the sales hit would be in the “single digit” percentage range.

ASML itself declined to comment. The Dutch government said it is not its place to comment on proposals made by the US legislature.

What the MATCH Act Is Really About

The bill goes beyond ASML. Its sponsors say it is designed to close gaps in the current export control regime that China has exploited because US allies have not matched Washington’s restrictions.

ASML has forecast China will account for around 20% of its total revenue in 2026. Sales of older, less advanced machines would not be affected under the current proposals.

The Dutch government now faces pressure from Washington on export policy — a sensitive issue for a country where ASML is one of its most strategically important companies.

The last time new restrictions were applied to ASML’s China business was September 2024.

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