Bitcoin Chart Pattern Targets $78,000 — Key Levels to Watch

Bitcoin (BTC) price trades at $71,552 after forming a bullish continuation pattern on the daily chart that carries an 11% breakout projection.

Friday’s March US CPI report is expected to show inflation jumping to 3.3% year over year. However, a roughly 1,300% surge in weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows and deepening exchange outflows suggest that BTC demand may absorb the macro headwind.

Bitcoin Price Builds Bullish Pattern as Weekly ETF Inflows Spike

Between late March and April 7, Bitcoin price carved a cup and handle on the daily chart, a bullish continuation pattern where a rounded recovery forms the cup and a shallow pullback forms the handle before a potential breakout. The cup’s rounded bottom took shape through the late-March correction. The current pullback from the April 7 high represents the handle. Additionally, the pattern comes with an 11% breakout potential, if confirmed.

Volume behavior aligns with the formation. Selling pressure during the handle has been noticeably lower than the buying volume that drove the cup’s rally leg. Declining volume during the handle is typical for this pattern. It signals that sellers are thinning out rather than building momentum.

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The institutional picture reinforces the setup. Weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows jumped from $22.34 million for the week ending April 2 to $312.27 million for the week ending April 7, roughly a 1,300% increase.

The spike arrived as Morgan Stanley plans to list its MSBT spot Bitcoin ETF on April 8 with a 0.14% expense ratio, the lowest among all spot BTC funds.

ETF flows alone, however, do not confirm whether spot market participants share the same conviction.

Exchange Outflows Deepen as Spot Buyers Accumulate

Spot demand is arriving alongside the ETF pickup. The exchange net position change, a metric that tracks Bitcoin flowing in and out of exchanges, deepened from -30,727 BTC on April 6 to -37,472 BTC on April 7. The negative value means more Bitcoin left exchanges than entered. The 22% single-day increase in outflow intensity shows holders are possibly pulling BTC into storage at an accelerating pace.

Shrinking exchange supply tightens the available spot order book. When ETF inflows are rising and exchange balances are falling simultaneously, the conditions for upside acceleration improve. The combination also suggests the current setup has real demand behind it rather than leveraged speculation alone.

With both institutional and spot flows now aligning behind the BTC rally, the price chart becomes the decider of whether these signals produce a breakout or stall.

Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch as Friday’s CPI Approaches

The cup and handle’s neckline sits at $73,238, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci level. It is historically the zone where proportional pullbacks of a prior move often resolve. A daily close above it would confirm the pattern and open a measured move toward $78,383, roughly 7% above the neckline. The full 11% projection extends higher.

Before the neckline, Bitcoin price needs to reclaim $71,649 at the 0.5 Fibonacci level cleanly. A close above that threshold would signal handle completion.

Cup and handle formations after sharp recoveries carry a nuance. The handle must hold above the midpoint of the cup’s depth for the pattern to remain valid. The current handle sits well above that midpoint, keeping the structure intact.

Friday’s CPI release presents two scenarios. If BTC rallies despite a hot 3.3% print, it strengthens the narrative that Bitcoin is acting as an inflation hedge.

If the print triggers selling, the correction could stay within the handle’s range rather than breaking the pattern, given the ETF and spot flow support documented above.

On the downside, $70,060 at the 0.382 Fibonacci level is the first Bitcoin support level. A drop below $68,093 would weaken the handle considerably. A breakdown below $64,915 at the cup’s base invalidates the pattern entirely.

Currently, $73,238 separates a confirmed breakout toward $78,383 from a retreat into the handle and a potential retest of $68,093.

The post Bitcoin Chart Pattern Targets $78,000 — Key Levels to Watch appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Source: https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-price-rally-cpi-etf-inflows-analysis/