White House forced to warn staff not to bet on war hours after suspicious lucrative trades

The White House quietly warned its own staff not to use insider knowledge to place bets on prediction markets, according to a new report.

Just hours after President Donald Trump announced a sudden pause of strikes against Iran on March 23, the White House Management Office fired off a staff-wide email warning employees against leveraging their positions for well-timed bets in futures markets, the Wall Street Journal reported. The warning came after more than $760 million worth of oil futures contracts changed hands in less than two minutes, about 15 minutes before Trump announced the policy shift on Truth Social.

This week, three accounts on Polymarket earned more than $600,000 by correctly betting on the timing of the Iran ceasefire announcement.

The White House insisted there's no evidence of leaks, with Trump spokesman Davis Ingle calling reporting of insider trading "baseless and irresponsible."

Trump allies, however, weren't buying it.

"It is disgusting," said Tom Ellsworth on the Trump-friendly PBD Podcast. He suspects a "circle of people" in government must have known what the "president was going to say." The timing, he concluded, "certainly stinks."

Democrats have pushed legislation to ban prediction markets related to war entirely. Sen. Andy Kim (D-NJ) called the situation a breeding ground for "corruption and exploitation."

The scandal echoes a January episode in which an unknown trader made $400,000 betting on Nicolás Maduro's capture — less than five hours before it happened. In February, Israel arrested army reservists for allegedly using classified military information to place bets on Polymarket.