Kenya moves to finalize US trade deal by year-end

Kenya plans to wrap up a trade agreement with the US by the end of the year, the country’s trade minister said. The pact will serve as a backstop for exports if a regional duty-free arrangement that ends this month is not extended.

Trade Minister Lee Kinyanjui offered the first public signal from either side on timing, noting that such an accord would be a first between Washington and a nation in sub-Saharan Africa. Kinyanjui said in an interview, “It depends also on them (the Americans), but our view is that before the end of the year, we should be able to have something on the table.”

Kinyanjui held talks with United States trade representative Jamieson Greer in Washington in the previous month, where the two decided to launch negotiations on a reciprocal agreement. Since then, neither capital has announced further meetings or formal rounds of negotiations.

Nairobi’s push has gained pace after a 10% tariff was placed on Kenyan goods during Trump’s April tariff review, and with the possible end-September expiry of the AGOA, a duty-free programme for eligible nations in Africa. 

Kenya exported $737 million worth of goods to the US last year, about 10% of its total exports. In August, it reopened trade discussions to protect market access and complete a process that began in 2020 during Trump’s first term.

United States and Kenya explore new trade framework

Under President Joe Biden, the two sides launched efforts on an investment and trade partnership designed to ease non-tariff barriers, but that effort was not completed before Donald Trump returned to office again in January.

Kenya is one of Washington’s closest partners in the region and, in 2024, received the designation of a major ally outside NATO. Even so, Nairobi has fielded recent criticism from some United States officials over its deeper relations with China. President Ruto has defended engagement with Beijing, saying Kenya needs to sell more into the Chinese market to narrow a trade gap that favors China.

Kinyanjui would not discuss the possible terms of a new pact but said it is “largely the wish” to mirror AGOA, which allows a wide range of products from 32 qualifying African nations to enter the US duty-free. 

US AGOA supports jobs in Kenya

“If there’s no clear transition, there would be disruption,” Lee Kinyanjui said, adding that the government hopes for an extension to protect jobs in textiles and apparel from “a sudden end to AGOA”.

According to Kinyanjui, AGOA supports 300,000 jobs, both direct and indirect, in Kenya’s textile industry. Factories produce uniforms, jeans, and other clothing for US retailers such as Walmart and Target. This work depends on steady access to the American market. 

Officials say Kenya’s current exposure at 10% is still lower than levies on competitors like South Africa or Vietnam, which could provide some buffer even if AGOA lapses. 

“We believe we still can be competitive,” Kinyanjui said. “You may see those big companies actually wanting to come to Kenya.”

For now, Nairobi is pursuing two tracks by pressing for a bilateral deal with Washington by year’s end while hoping for a bridge that would prevent a cliff-edge end to AGOA. With the duty-free programme set to expire at the end of September, the 10% tariff already in place since April, and no fresh negotiating dates announced, Kinyanjui’s timeline is the clearest marker yet for how fast both sides may need to move.

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