Veteran Analyst Benjamin Cowen Shares the Level at Which Bitcoin Prices Could Fall in a “Doomsday Scenario”

Benjamin Cowen, a closely followed figure in the cryptocurrency market, has made striking statements about the future of Bitcoin (BTC).

Cowen categorizes market downturn expectations into two distinct categories: the Realistic View and the Doomer View.

Cowen stated that Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in the last quarter of 2025 and entered a bear market that would last approximately a year. According to the analyst, a 70% drop from the peak (with deviations of about 5%) is entirely consistent with Bitcoin’s past cycles, and this is not a “doomsday scenario” but a historical reality.

They predict that a 65% drop from the peak would bring the price down to $42,000, while a 75% drop would bring it to the $30,000-$31,000 range.

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The analyst states that the real disaster scenario is not just Bitcoin falling by 70%, but a deeper recession accompanied by macroeconomic data. Cowen argues that the US economy is heading towards a recession, highlighting the weakness in the labor market and the decline in hiring. He describes the possibility of Bitcoin falling even below the “realistic” 70% drop as a “worst-case scenario” if the stock market (S&P 500) experiences a serious collapse.

Cowen points to these three technical indicators to argue that Bitcoin has not yet bottomed out:

All major bottoms in the past have come after the intersection of profit and loss metrics; however, that hasn’t happened yet.

Historically, Bitcoin has reached bear market lows below both the “Realized Price” (currently around 54,000) and the “Equilibrium Price” (currently around 39,000).

MVRV Z-Score: The fact that this score has not yet fallen below zero is presented as further evidence that the decline may continue.

*This is not investment advice.

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