BP Stock Rises on “Exceptional” Oil Trading as Middle East Crisis Lifts Prices

TLDR

• BP’s oil trading division is on track for an “exceptional” Q1 2026
• Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions drove oil prices above $100/barrel
• Net debt expected to rise to $25–$27 billion, up from ~$22 billion
• Working capital build of $4–$7 billion cited as the main driver of debt increase
• This is the first quarterly update under new CEO Meg O’Neill, who took over April 1

BP’s oil trading arm is heading for a standout quarter, but rising debt is part of the story too. Here’s what the company said in its latest trading update.

BP p.l.c., BP

BP said its oil trading business is expected to deliver “exceptional” results for Q1 2026. That’s a sharp reversal from what the company described as a “weak” fourth quarter of 2025.

The turnaround has been driven by a surge in oil prices tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict. The U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, trapping large volumes of Gulf oil and forcing traders and refineries to scramble for alternative supplies.

That scramble pushed crude above $100 per barrel, creating ideal conditions for oil trading desks.

Net Debt Set to Climb

While trading looks strong, BP’s balance sheet is under more pressure. The company said it expects net debt to rise to between $25 billion and $27 billion by the end of Q1, up from just over $22 billion the previous quarter.

BP attributed the increase primarily to a working capital build of between $4 billion and $7 billion, driven by the high price environment. When oil prices spike, more cash gets tied up in inventory and trade receivables.

Upstream production, meanwhile, is expected to come in “broadly flat” compared to Q4 2025.

BP is not alone in flagging the impact of market swings. ExxonMobil has warned that timing factors in trading could reduce its Q1 earnings by $3.5 to $4.9 billion.

O’Neill’s First Update as CEO

This trading update is the first since Meg O’Neill officially took the top job on April 1. She replaced Murray Auchincloss, who was pushed out after Chairman Albert Manifold concluded the company’s restructuring was moving too slowly.

O’Neill’s mandate is clear: cut the company down, grow oil and gas output, and offload underperforming clean energy assets.

Natural gas marketing and trading results are expected to be average for the quarter, a contrast to the strength seen in oil.

BP’s stock currently trades at $46.44. According to GuruFocus, its forward P/E sits at 11.02, while its GF Value estimate of $35.77 suggests the stock may be trading at a premium to some valuation models.

No insider buying or selling has been reported at BP in the past three months.

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