TSMC (TSM) Stock Surges 137% in a Year — Can Earnings Thursday Keep the Run Going?

TLDR

• TSMC reports Q1 2026 earnings on April 16
• Wall Street expects EPS of $3.30 and revenue of $35.35 billion
• TSM stock has surged 137% over the past 12 months
• Aletheia Capital set a new street-high price target of $600
• Options traders are pricing in a 4.83% move in either direction post-earnings

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is set to report its first-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, April 16, and Wall Street is watching closely.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TSM

Analysts expect earnings per share of $3.30, which would be more than 50% higher than the same quarter last year. Revenue is forecast at $35.35 billion, up from $25.52 billion in Q1 2025.

TSM stock has climbed more than 137% over the past 12 months, driven by strong demand for advanced chips from key customers including Apple and Nvidia.

TSMC holds roughly 70% of the global contract chip manufacturing market, making it the dominant player in the foundry space.

Heading into the print, analyst sentiment is firmly positive. Aletheia Capital’s Stefan Chang raised his price target to a street-high $600, up from $500, while maintaining a Buy rating.

Chang pointed to TSMC’s push to expand capacity, including faster rollout of advanced chips and growth in packaging technologies. He expects most of the new capacity to come online in 2027 and 2028.

Analyst Price Target Upgrades

He also forecasts near-term sequential revenue growth of around 8% to 10%, supported by solid demand and strong cash generation.

Bank of America analyst Haas Liu also lifted his price target, raising it to NT$2,530 from NT$2,360, keeping a Buy rating. Liu cited strong demand for high-performance computing and AI chips as key drivers.

Liu expects Q2 sales to grow 7% to 9% sequentially, with margins improving slightly on the back of demand for advanced chip nodes.

On the valuation side, GuruFocus puts TSMC’s GF Value at $280.96, suggesting the stock is trading at roughly a 31.5% premium to that estimate at its current price of $369.57.

The company’s P/E ratio sits at 34.58x, well above its five-year median of 22.55x, which some analysts flag as a reason for caution.

Insider Activity and Options Positioning

Despite the valuation debate, insiders have been buying. Over the past three months, insider purchases totalled $819,595 with no recorded sales — a small but directionally positive signal.

Options traders are pricing in a 4.83% move in either direction following the earnings release, based on at-the-money straddle pricing for contracts expiring closest to the announcement.

Bernstein analysts have also projected that TSMC is likely to report robust Q1 numbers in line with market expectations.

On the demand side, analysts note that AI chip orders are expected to absorb production capacity that would otherwise be allocated to Qualcomm and MediaTek mobile chips.

TSMC’s GF Score stands at 98 out of 100, with perfect 10/10 ratings for both Profitability and Growth, according to GuruFocus.

According to TipRanks, TSM carries a Strong Buy consensus rating based on six Buy ratings and one Hold over the past three months. The average price target of $423.50 implies about 14.6% upside from current levels.

TSMC is scheduled to release its Q1 2026 results before markets open on April 16.

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