Georgia governor has a dire warning for the GOP

As the United States inches toward the midterm elections in November, many are speculating on how the political landscape will shift as voters respond to President Donald Trump’s highly consequential actions over the past year. Speaking to Politico, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp had a stark warning for his fellow Republicans: “This is going to be a tough cycle for us.”

Kemp suggested that there are two reasons the GOP is facing an uphill battle, with the first coming down to simple historical trends.

“I’ve told a lot of Republicans out there,” said Kemp, “that a midterm election with a Republican president is tough enough already, no matter who that president is.”

He’s correct. Over the past 80 years, the president’s party has almost always lost House seats in the midterms. At the same time, the past five presidents — including Trump — entered office with a super-majority, then lost it by giving up seats in the House or Senate. This is precisely the circumstance in which Trump finds himself. He began his second administration with a super-majority, but now it looks all but certain that the GOP will lose that majority in the House and possibly even the Senate, the latter of which seemed safe for the Republicans to retain control until the disastrous consequences of Trump’s war on Iran began to become apparent.

That brings up Kemp’s second concern, which he implied more subtly with phrases like “no matter who that president is.” While sitting presidents typically lose congressional seats at midterm, that dynamic could be exacerbated by Trump’s historic unpopularity.

Trump has always struggled with approval ratings, but since launching war against Iran — which has delivered staggering economic and diplomatic consequences — the president’s numbers have taken a nosedive to some of the worst in history. And Republican midterm vulnerability isn’t just being suggested by pollsters, but by electoral results already borne out across the country.

As Kemp notes, in “special elections, Democrats have been overperforming” both in his home state of Georgia and across the country. History has shown that when a party overperforms in special elections — meaning they either win seats that were previously considered safe by their opponents or lose by notably narrower margins than usual — it is a sign that the party is poised for significant wins in the midterms. Since the beginning of Trump’s second term, the Democrats have made substantial gains in special races.

While some Republicans have attempted to dismiss these trends, Kemp is taking them seriously.

“I’m not sticking my hand in saying, ‘Hey, everything’s going to be great in November,’” he explained. “This is going to be a tough cycle for us.”

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