Should You Buy Netflix (NFLX) Stock Before Thursday’s Earnings Report?

Key Takeaways

• Q1 2026 earnings for Netflix will be released after market close on Thursday, April 16
• Analysts project earnings per share of $0.79 (up 15% YoY) and revenue of $12.18 billion (up 15.5% YoY)
• The options market indicates a potential 6.54% swing following the earnings announcement
• Year-to-date, NFLX shares have climbed approximately 10%, boosted by subscription price increases and a $2.8 billion termination fee from the collapsed Warner Bros. Discovery deal
• Out of 40 Wall Street analysts, 30 recommend buying the stock, with a consensus price target of $115.09

As Netflix prepares to unveil its Q1 2026 financial results this Thursday, April 16, the streaming giant’s shares are trading near $102, reflecting a solid 10% gain since the start of the year. The company will release its quarterly figures after the closing bell.

Netflix, Inc., NFLX

The Street’s consensus calls for earnings per share to reach $0.79, representing a 15% increase compared to the prior-year quarter. On the top line, revenue is anticipated to hit $12.18 billion, marking a 15.5% year-over-year expansion.

During the previous reporting period, Netflix delivered revenue of $12.05 billion, reflecting a 17.6% annual growth rate. However, the company’s earnings guidance for the subsequent quarter fell short of Wall Street’s hopes, dampening investor excitement somewhat.

Heading into this week’s report, analyst estimates have remained relatively unchanged over the last month. Such stability typically suggests the Street isn’t bracing for major deviations from consensus.

Netflix kicks off earnings season as the first prominent consumer internet firm to report results, positioning it as a bellwether for the broader sector.

Recent sentiment surrounding consumer internet stocks has been constructive. The group has advanced an average of 6.3% over the trailing 30 days. NFLX has significantly outperformed, rallying 11.8% during the same timeframe.

What Wall Street Analysts Are Saying

Evercore analyst Mark Mahaney reiterated his Buy rating while maintaining a $115 price target. He anticipates results will align closely with Street expectations, supported by a robust content pipeline and the positive impact of recent subscription price adjustments.

Mahaney also believes Netflix may reaffirm or modestly increase its full-year guidance, citing consistent subscriber additions and favorable pricing trends as core catalysts.

Wedbush’s Alicia Reese similarly maintained her Buy rating while raising her price target to $118 from $115. She highlighted expanding global advertising revenue and pricing power as tailwinds that should enhance margins throughout 2026.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank’s Bryan Kraft stuck with his Hold rating but bumped his target to $100 from $98. He noted that Netflix successfully avoided potential pitfalls by terminating the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition and securing a $2.8 billion breakup payment.

Kraft cautioned that long-term growth rates may decelerate and suggested the stock’s current valuation might already reflect much of the positive near-term narrative.

What the Options Market Is Signaling

Based on the at-the-money straddle for options expiring shortly after the earnings announcement, derivatives traders are anticipating a 6.54% move in either direction once results are disclosed.

This implied volatility range suggests the stock could climb to approximately $109 on the upside or retreat to around $95 on the downside, depending on how the quarterly print is received.

Among the 40 analysts tracking Netflix, 30 have assigned Buy ratings while 10 maintain Hold recommendations. The average price target stands at $115.09, suggesting approximately 12% upside potential from current trading levels.

On Tuesday, Netflix shares advanced 3.02% in anticipation of Thursday’s earnings release.

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