Affirm (AFRM) Stock Is Up Big Two Days Running — Here’s Why Citi Is Watching Closely

TLDR

• AFRM gapped up Wednesday, opening at $58.40 vs. a prior close of $55.82, last trading at $59.32 on volume of ~2.4 million.
• Citi Research analyst Bryan Keane placed an “Upside 90-Day Catalyst Watch” on AFRM ahead of its May 12 investor day.
• Keane expects management to set medium-term revenue growth targets above 20% and tighten profitability margins.
• A LendingTree survey found 47% of BNPL users missed payments in the past year, up from 41% in 2025 — but it didn’t dent the stock.
• AFRM is down 20% year-to-date but has climbed over 14% across two sessions this week; Wall Street consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $85.

Affirm’s most recent earnings showed $0.37 EPS vs. the $0.28 consensus estimate — a beat of $0.09. Revenue came in at $1.12 billion, up 29.6% year-over-year, topping analyst expectations of $1.06 billion. Net margin was 7.6%, with a return on equity of 8.83%.

Affirm Holdings, Inc., AFRM

Despite that strong quarter, the stock has been under pressure. AFRM is down 20% in 2026 as rising consumer default rates and a rough environment for fintech have weighed on sentiment. So Wednesday’s move got attention.

The stock climbed 6.7% on the day, extending a 7.4% gain from the session before. The catalyst was a note from Citi Research analyst Bryan Keane, who placed an “Upside 90-Day Catalyst Watch” on AFRM ahead of the company’s May 12 investor day.

Keane believes management will use that event to refresh medium-term targets first set in 2023 — targets the company has, in his words, “since sustainably outperformed.”

What Citi Expects at the May 12 Investor Day

Keane is looking for a medium-term revenue growth outlook above 20%. He also expects Affirm to tighten its revenue less transaction costs (RLTC) margin guidance to a range of 3.5% to 4% of gross merchandise volume, up from a prior outlook of 3% to 4%.

The company’s CFO, Rob O’Hare, said on the last earnings call that RLTC take rates are expected to exceed 4% for both the third and fourth fiscal quarters of 2026.

Keane also pencils in GAAP operating margin guidance of 18% to 20%, alongside a GAAP tax rate assumption of around 20%. He holds a Buy rating and a $100 price target on the stock.

The broader analyst picture is constructive. Of 28 analysts tracked, one has a Strong Buy, 19 a Buy, and eight a Hold. The consensus is “Moderate Buy” with a $85 average price target. Cantor Fitzgerald has a $85 target; Oppenheimer sits at $83 with an “outperform” rating; Compass Point has a $68 Buy target.

Goldman Sachs cut AFRM from Buy to Hold in February.

BNPL Pain Points in Focus

The rally happened despite a fresh report from LendingTree that put a spotlight on BNPL credit stress. The survey of over 2,000 consumers found 47% were late on a BNPL payment in the past year, up from 41% in 2025 and 34% in 2024.

More than half of respondents said they relied on BNPL loans “to make ends meet.” Nearly a third reported using BNPL to pay for groceries.

Affirm’s COO Michael Linford pushed back on the BNPL label in February, telling Barron’s the company is “at its core, a software company” and that lumping Affirm with the broader BNPL category is “a bit of a shortcut.”

The stock trades at a P/E of 72.82, a PEG ratio of 3.60, and a beta of 3.63. Its 50-day moving average is $49.42; its 200-day moving average is $64.17. Institutional investors hold 69.29% of the stock.

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