CLARITY Act gridlock is mounting on Capitol Hill as House Republicans remain split over FISA surveillance reauthorization and budget reconciliation, burning the limited legislative bandwidth that crypto’s most important bill in a generation needs before midterm politics consume the calendar entirely.

CLARITY Act gridlock is not a crypto story in isolation. The backlog of Republican infighting across FISA, budget reconciliation, and Iran war powers resolutions is consuming the precise legislative oxygen that the most consequential digital asset bill in US history requires in the next two weeks. None of those fights are about crypto. All of them determine whether crypto legislation moves or dies.

The Senate returned from Easter recess this week with roughly 14 days of working time before midterm politics absorb the calendar. Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott has not yet announced a markup date for the CLARITY Act as of April 15.

How FISA and Reconciliation Are Consuming the Window

FISA Section 702, which authorizes surveillance of foreign nationals abroad, expires April 19. Speaker Mike Johnson is pushing a clean reauthorization, but a faction of House Republicans is withholding votes unless unrelated voting reform measures including the SAVE America Act are attached. That standoff may require Democratic votes, stretching floor time and management attention that Senate leadership cannot spare.

Budget reconciliation is equally knotted. The Senate Budget Committee is drafting a second reconciliation bill to fund ICE and Border Patrol, after Senate Democrats blocked standard appropriations. Some House Republicans insist they will not consider the Senate’s partial DHS funding bill until the reconciliation piece is finalized. That back-and-forth has already consumed weeks.

The CLARITY Act Math and Why It Matters Now

Even if Tim Scott schedules a Banking Committee markup this week, the bill still faces five sequential steps: a committee vote, a full Senate floor vote requiring 60 votes, reconciliation between the Banking and Agriculture Committee versions, reconciliation with the House-passed version, and a presidential signature. Paradigm’s Justin Slaughter has stated Senate floor procedures alone require two to three weeks.

If the bill clears Banking by late April, the arithmetic gets tight. If it misses that window, the Senate schedule goes dark from August 10, then again from October 5 through the November 3 midterms. A House flip in November could kill the CLARITY Act’s prospects until the end of the decade, as TD Cowen analysts and Senator Lummis have both warned.

What Is at Stake for Digital Assets

The CLARITY Act would resolve the SEC-CFTC jurisdictional ambiguity that has kept institutional crypto infrastructure in regulatory limbo. JPMorgan analysts have called midyear passage a positive catalyst for digital assets. Polymarket currently prices passage odds at 55%. That number gets less favorable with every legislative day that FISA and reconciliation absorb before Tim Scott announces a date.

“This is our last chance to pass the Clarity Act until at least 2030,” Senator Cynthia Lummis wrote on X this month. Republican gridlock may be the thing that proves her right.