Bitcoin Breaks Key Resistance After 16% Rally as Momentum Signals Trend Shift

TLDR:

• Bitcoin surged over 16% in two weeks, breaking a six-month resistance level and shifting market structure outlook.
• BTC moved above the 100-day SMA after prior rejections that triggered declines of 30% and 39% in past cycles.
• Momentum indicators turned positive with a bullish crossover, while volatility expands after a long compression phase.
• Market developments, including institutional access and profitability shifts, continue to support current price strength.

Bitcoin has staged a sharp recovery, climbing more than 16% in two weeks and reclaiming a key resistance level. The move follows months of pressure, while both technical indicators and broader market developments begin to support a shift in short-term direction.

Bitcoin Pushes Through Key Resistance as Momentum Builds

Recent market commentary from Ali Charts noted that Bitcoin has broken above a resistance level that defined price action for nearly six months.

The analyst pointed out that this marks a notable change, especially as the asset tests the 100-day simple moving average again.

Earlier interactions with this level resulted in steep declines. In October, Bitcoin dropped about 30% after rejection.

A similar pattern appeared in January, when price fell roughly 39% following another failed attempt. This time, price action shows a different response, with Bitcoin moving through the level instead of reversing.

At the same time, broader market developments are shaping the current trend. A recent update reported that Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings have returned to profit, as price climbed above its average acquisition level of $75,577. This shift reflects improved balance sheet positioning for large holders.

In parallel, Charles Schwab plans to roll out direct spot Bitcoin and Ethereum access for retail clients in the coming weeks.

This step may expand access to digital assets for traditional investors, adding another layer of demand to the market.

These developments align with the current market structure, where Bitcoin trades near $77,900. Price has been forming higher lows, which often reflects steady buyer interest. This gradual climb suggests a shift from the earlier bearish structure toward a more stable upward trend.

Technical Indicators Signal Early Trend Transition

The daily chart structure shows a clear transition phase. After a prolonged decline from around $110,000 to $75,000, Bitcoin entered a sideways range between $65,000 and $75,000. During this period, Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating reduced volatility and a possible accumulation phase.

As price exited this range, volatility began to expand again. Bollinger Bands are now widening, which often accompanies stronger directional moves. Bitcoin is currently approaching the upper band near the $78,000 zone, where short-term resistance may appear.

Momentum indicators also reflect a change in direction. The oscillator, similar to a MACD-style setup, previously showed deep negative readings, signaling strong selling pressure. That has since reversed, with the indicator crossing above zero and forming a bullish crossover.

The histogram has turned positive and continues to grow, which suggests increasing upward momentum. This shift is often associated with early stages of trend reversal rather than a temporary bounce.

Even so, resistance remains close. If Bitcoin struggles near the $78,000 to $80,000 range, a pullback toward the mid-band near $75,000 could follow. Stronger support remains near $70,000, where previous demand emerged during consolidation.

If price holds above current levels and breaks resistance, the next areas to watch are $85,000 and $90,000. These levels align with prior structural zones and may attract increased market activity.

The current setup reflects a transition from consolidation into a potential expansion phase. With both technical structure and supporting market developments aligning, the market is attempting to establish a new direction.

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