AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Plunges 14% After Blue Origin Orbital Mishap Threatens Timeline

Key Takeaways

• Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket delivered AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird 7 satellite to an unsustainably low orbit, requiring de-orbiting
• ASTS shares plummeted approximately 14% during Monday’s premarket session
• While insurance will likely cover the satellite’s financial cost, the schedule delay poses significant challenges
• The company requires 45–60 operational satellites for commercial launch but currently operates only six
• Scotiabank’s Andres Coello maintains a Sell stance with a $41.20 target, suggesting approximately 52% additional downside potential

AST SpaceMobile encountered a significant obstacle over the weekend when its BlueBird 7 satellite was deployed into an incorrect orbit following its launch. Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket was responsible for the mishap.

While the satellite successfully powered up following its separation from the launch vehicle, the orbital altitude proved insufficient for sustained operation using its built-in propulsion system. AST has announced plans to de-orbit the satellite — allowing it to disintegrate upon atmospheric reentry.

According to the company, insurance coverage should reimburse the satellite’s monetary value. This means the immediate financial damage may be contained. However, the temporal setback presents a more serious concern.

ASTS shares declined approximately 14% in Monday’s premarket session, trading near $73.96.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc., ASTS

AST is competing to deploy a satellite network capable of providing 5G-grade connectivity from orbit. Achieving commercial service availability in northern latitude regions requires between 45 and 60 operational satellites. Currently, only six are functioning.

The organization maintains its goal of approximately 45 satellites in orbit by the conclusion of 2026. Sunday’s incident complicates that objective.

Intensifying Competition

This failure arrives during a challenging period. SpaceX’s Starlink has deployed more than a thousand satellites in 2026 alone, with its fixed broadband subscriber count approaching approximately 10 million users. Starlink has been securing carrier partnerships throughout Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania — territories where AST had previously established initial agreements.

Amazon represents another emerging competitor in the direct-to-device sector. Its recent Globalstar acquisition announcement introduces another heavily capitalized challenger targeting the same market segment AST is pursuing, with operations planned from 2028.

Blue Origin, working to position itself as a viable commercial launch competitor, also suffers reputational damage from this incident. The company depends on reusable rocket technology to challenge SpaceX’s launch market supremacy.

Analyst Perspectives

Scotiabank’s Andres Coello — who ranks among the top 1% of Wall Street analysts — held a cautious position on ASTS even before this weekend’s developments. He maintains an Underperform rating with a $41.20 price objective, representing roughly 52% downside from Friday’s closing price.

The wider analyst consensus remains mixed. Among 11 analysts tracking the stock, four recommend purchasing, five hold neutral positions, and two assign Sell ratings. The consensus price target stands at $91.03, suggesting approximately 6% upside potential from Friday’s close.

AST SpaceMobile presently maintains six satellites in orbit and requires substantial constellation expansion before generating substantial commercial revenues.

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