Bitcoin Faces Quantum Risk if Developers Fail by 2030

Cofounder of Solana cautions that Bitcoin will have a 50/50 probability of quantum risk in 2030, and must urgently move to quantum-resistant signature schemes.

According to Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko, Bitcoin is increasingly threatened by quantum computing. He says there is a 50/50 probability of a quantum technology breakthrough in five years. 

Yakovenko called on the Bitcoin community to speed up and implement quantum-resistant signature schemes.

At the All-In Summit 2025, Yakovenko pointed to the accelerated rate of technological change. He observed the rapid growth in the use of artificial intelligence that is driving the growth of quantum computing. 

The migration to a quantum-resistant signature scheme, he said, was urgent, and Bitcoin developers needed to do it.

Quantum Threat Looms Large Over Bitcoin

The security of Bitcoin is now based on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA). 

This encryption secures the wallets of users through a series of complicated mathematical equations that are hard to solve using classical computers. 

But quantum computers undermine this base by the fact that they can solve these problems with ease through the Shor algorithm.

Scientists caution that in case a strong quantum computer emerges, it would be able to reveal private keys of Bitcoin wallets that have already shown the public key. 

This would subject billions of dollars of Bitcoin to risk. David Carvalho, the author of Naoris Protocol, agrees with the warning of Yakovenko. 

According to him, quantum computers could be able to crack the encryption of Bitcoin within a period of five years. The threat is no longer far but immediate.

The Urgency to Switch to Quantum-Resistant Cryptography

Yakavenko warns that it will be complicated to upgrade Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant system. It probably needs a hard fork – an upgrade to all users, which is difficult to coordinate. Yet, delay is dangerous.

Whereas there are other users in the crypto world who believe quantum threats are decades away.

Yakovenko emphasizes that the possibility of the breakthrough is too high to overlook. He encourages Bitcoin developers and stakeholders to increase the rate at which they protect the network.

Yakavenko is not alone in his message, as other industry players, such as Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, also caution the risk of quantum attacks on cryptocurrencies.

To recap it all, the future of Bitcoin security lies with the adoption of cryptographic protection against a post-quantum world. It is time to take action to ensure that Bitcoin is not left behind by the fast-developing technology.

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