PayPal (PYPL) Stock Faces Pressure as Mizuho Downgrades on X Money Threat

TLDR

• Mizuho downgraded PayPal from “Outperform” to “Neutral” and cut its price target from $60 to $50
• Elon Musk’s X Money platform is seen as a direct threat to PayPal and Venmo’s P2P payments business
• PayPal missed Q4 estimates — EPS came in at $1.23 vs. $1.29 expected; revenue was $8.68B vs. $8.82B
• Insiders sold 87,608 shares worth ~$3.83M over the past 90 days
• Consensus analyst rating is “Hold” with an average price target of $56.61

PayPal has had a rough stretch, and Wall Street is getting more cautious. Mizuho Financial Group has downgraded PYPL from “Outperform” to “Neutral,” cutting its price target by $10 — from $60 down to $50.

PayPal Holdings, Inc., PYPL

At roughly $50 per share, that new target leaves almost no upside. The downgrade reflects a shift in Mizuho’s view on PayPal’s competitive position, not just near-term numbers.

That’s almost exactly what PayPal and Venmo do. Mizuho flagged X Money as a direct threat to PayPal’s peer-to-peer payments and branded checkout businesses.

X has over 400 million monthly users. That’s a large built-in audience for any financial product from day one. The platform is also expected to introduce cashtags for tracking stocks and crypto, and may pursue a partnership with Visa.

There are also unconfirmed reports that X Money could offer up to 6% yield on user balances — a feature that would put it squarely in competition with mainstream fintech products.

Earnings Miss Added to the Pressure

PayPal’s most recent quarterly results didn’t help the mood. The company reported EPS of $1.23 for Q4, falling short of the $1.29 consensus estimate. Revenue came in at $8.68 billion against expectations of $8.82 billion.

Year-over-year revenue was up 4%, but that kind of growth isn’t enough to excite investors when competition is heating up on multiple fronts.

Analysts currently forecast full-year EPS of $5.03 for PayPal. The stock trades at a P/E of 9.39, which is low — but the discount is there for a reason.

Citi and Wells Fargo both maintain Hold ratings on the stock, citing slower growth expectations and market share pressure. Goldman Sachs went further, cutting its price target to $41 and setting a “Sell” rating back in February.

Bank of America started coverage in March with a “Neutral” rating and a $48 target. Among the 45 analysts tracked by MarketBeat, 7 say Buy, 32 say Hold, and 6 say Sell.

Institutional and Insider Selling Picks Up

Waterfront Wealth Inc. cut its PYPL position by 45.8% in Q4, selling 22,251 shares. Its remaining stake of 26,372 shares was valued at around $1.495 million at quarter-end.

Insider activity has also been on the sell side. Over the past 90 days, company insiders sold 87,608 shares worth approximately $3.83 million. That includes a 54.83% reduction in ownership by insider Suzan Kereere in February, and a 65.95% cut by CAO Chris Natali in March.

Institutional investors still own 68.32% of the stock. Some smaller funds did add modestly to positions in Q3, but the larger moves have leaned toward trimming.

PayPal’s 52-week range runs from $38.46 to $79.50. The stock opened Monday at $50.81, sitting above its 50-day moving average of $44.88 but well below its 200-day average of $55.76.

PayPal also pays a $0.14 quarterly dividend, annualized at $0.56, representing a yield of roughly 1.1%.

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