'Uncharted water': Gamblers win big off Trump’s war

Each time President Donald Trump makes an announcement regarding his war on Iran, something suspicious happens: a smattering of prediction market bets are placed hours or even minutes beforehand, specifically pertaining to the news to come, which then pay off big when the announcement is made. This pattern — which has repeated again and again over the course of the war — has many suggesting that insider trading is occurring at the highest levels of government.

In an investigation by the BBC, for example, it was found that in the 47 minutes before Trump declared the war was “very complete, pretty much,” there was a massive surge in bets that the price of oil would fall. It did, and those who placed last-minute bets raked in over $1 million. Similarly suspicious bets happened in the run-up to the U.S. seizure of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, just prior to the February 28th U.S. strikes on Iran, and before other key pieces of news regarding the war were revealed.

“Our paper finds evidence of trading that has characteristics which are suggestive of material, non-public information,” said Joshua Mitts, a law professor at Columbia University who has been analyzing the bets. He explained that while it’s rather straightforward to recognize the pattern, “We cannot prove, however, that any given party had specific information or where that information came from.”

Donald Trump Jr. is currently an adviser to two leading prediction platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket. There has been no direct evidence, however, to suggest that he or anyone else in the Trump family has benefited from war-related bets.

According to Andrew Moran, head of criminology, sociology, politics, and international relations at London Metropolitan University, the trading “does look suspicious and it is clear that a number of investors have made substantial gains…there might be something here which suggests more than coincidence.” But he also agrees that it would be “difficult to prove” who leaked and who was leaked to.

Moran noted that if the President’s family or associates are proven to have engaged in insider trading, “that could be damaging and we will be in uncharted water. Democrats most certainly will be calling for the President to be removed. It will then become a question of loyalty for the Republicans and how far they are prepared to support this administration.”

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